Elon Musk has disproportionate influence in the new Trump administration. As head of the new department of effectiveness of the government, or Doge, the richest man in the world has enjoyed the almost underestimated political power in the reduction and redevelopment of the federal government as he sees fit. And it quickly became clear that he had President Donald Trump’s ear on questions beyond this memory.
But on a subject, Musk stands a little outside of others in the coterie of aid and advisers around Trump: China. Unlike the many hawks of the new Trump cabinet which call for an online approach hard on China, Musk is a striking aberrant value.
As an expert in Chinese-American relationships that have watched Musk’s opinions on China, I can’t find his long story to kick the surprising pro-Chinese feeling, since he looked for throughout to get a commercial attire in the country.
But these tangles deserve to be examined, given the role of Musk in the Trump administration at a time when one of the greatest challenges of foreign policy in the United States is how to manage his relationship with Beijing.
Musc journey to the east
For years, Musk has had significant commercial interests in China, with the Shanghai factory in Tesla, Tesla Giga Shanghai, playing a crucial role in the global operations of the company.
Since its opening in 2019, the Shanghai factory has exceeded the installations of Tesla, California, both in size and productivity, now representing more than half of the company’s world deliveries and the majority of its profits. In addition, almost 40% of the Tesla battery supply chain is based on Chinese companies, and these partnerships continue to develop.
In particular, Tesla was the first foreign automaker authorized to establish operations in China without a local partner, following a change in property regulation. The Shanghai factory was built with the support of $ 1.4 billion in loans to Chinese state banks, granted to favorable interest rates.
Between 2019 and 2023, the Shanghai government also provided Tesla with a corporate tax rate reduced by 15% to 10 percentage points lower than the standard rate.
The benefits of manufacturing costs in Shanghai, which include production and lower labor expenditure, have further cemented Tesla’s dependence on the Chinese market.
Given that Musk’s wealth is largely linked to Tesla’s actions, his financial situation is increasingly depends on the company’s fortune in China, making any potential disengagement of the country both economic and strategic.
Tesla’s continuous investment in China highlights this dependence. On February 11, 2025, the company opened its second factory in Shanghai – a 200 million dollars factory which should produce batteries of 10,000 megapacks per year. This is the first Megapack battery factory in the company outside the United States.
This investment deepens the presence of Tesla in China in the middle of a new wave of China-States trade tensions. On February 1, the Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which prompted Beijing reprisals with American coal prices, liquefied natural gas, agricultural equipment and crude oil.
A fan of China
We do not know to what extent the financial interests of Musk in China will result in a real influence on the policy of the Trump administration towards Beijing. But the long history of Musk of pro-china remarks suggests the direction he wants the administration to move.
During his visit to Beijing in April 2024, Musk praised the country, noting: “I also have a lot of fans in China – well, the feeling is mutual.”
His admiration seems to depend in part on the way he considers business and work practices in China. In this vein, Musk criticized American workers as lazy and faced American disputes on labor law, while simultaneously praising Chinese workers to “burn oil from 3 hours” in a work system Intensely repressive.
In many articles on the X social media platform, formerly Twitter, which he owns, Musk has also congratulated the Chinese infrastructure and the high-speed rail system, hailed his space program, applauded his leadership in the World Green Energy Initiatives and urged his supporters to visit the country.
Musk has also opposed American efforts to decline from China, describing the economies of countries like “joint twins”, despite an important part of the establishment of foreign policy in the West, the show decreased the dependence on China, as necessary for security interests in the midst of increasing geopolitical tensions.
On the question of Taiwan, the most dangerous flash point of the United States relations, Musk compared Taiwan to Hawaii, arguing that he is an integral part of China and noting that the American Fleet of the Pacific prevented Continental China to achieve unification by force. Musk also suggested that the Taiwan dispute could be resolved by allowing China to establish Taiwan as a special administrative zone, similar to Hong Kong.
His remarks were shared and welcomed by the China Ambassador to the United States, which, in an article on X, underlined the so-called Chinese unification strategy and pleaded for the model “a country, two systems ».
Trump’s rear channel envoy?
The big question in the future is to know how Musk’s financial stakes and have declared that admiration, China will result in attempts to influence the policy of the American administration, in particular given the advisory role not conventional musk and the strong faction of anti-china falcons in Trumpworld.
Given the approach of Musk in China, it is difficult to imagine that it would not try to use his influence with the president to push for a little warmer relationships with Beijing.
If such advisers were respected, it is easy to consider Musk by taking advantage of its deep ties to China, in particular its close personal relations with the second manager of China, Prime Minister Li Qiang, who was the chief of the Shanghai left when the Tesla factory was built. In the scenario, Trump could use musk as a rear channel for diplomacy in order to mitigate the tensions of China-US and facilitate bilateral cooperation if necessary.
At this stage, he may have said that Musk met the envoy of Chinese president Xi Jinping at the inauguration of Trump, vice-president Han Zheng, on the eve of the event.
But it is far from being sure that Trump wants this diplomatic role for Musk, or that other voices will not win with regard to Beijing. In his first mandate, Trump launched an unprecedented trade war and technological blockade against China, fundamentally reshaping China-US relations and pushing the United States to something of bipartite consensus to counter Beijing that has existed for several years .
Trump’s pricing movements and the second mandate choices for the best commercial and commercial roles, such as Peter Navarro and Jamieson Greer – who played key roles in the trade war against China during the president’s first mandate – suggest that the Trump’s commitment to decoupled more from China remains strong.
In addition, Musk’s commercial interests and personal wealth linked to China could make it vulnerable to Chinese influence. By relying on Musk’s close ties with Trump, China could use its dependence on the Chinese market as a negotiation currency to put pressure on Trump to make concessions on issues of major strategic importance for Beijing.
China has a history of foreign constraints that depend on its market to compromise on issues concerning its national interests. For example, Apple has removed virtual private network applications from its App Store in China at the request of the government. Likewise, Tesla could face pressure comparable to the future if Beijing wants to use Musk as a cake to influence politics in the Trump administration. In particular, as a Dogee chief, with access to sensitive data from several agencies, Musk could find himself taken between American security control and the strategic targeting of China.
As long as Musk retains the influence with Trump which he holds now, it is conceivable that his pro-Chinese feelings result in attempts to influence government policy. However, even if this must be the case, if these efforts succeed will depend on the president and his other advisers, many of which are looking for an aggressive front against Beijing and are likely to consider musk as an obstacle rather than as an ally in this fight for come.
This article was initially published on the conversation. Read the original article.
