Southeast Asian leaders are unlikely to resolve long-standing disputes in the South China Sea at next month’s ASEAN summit, but they could make “incremental progress” toward a code of conduct, or COC, aimed at managing tensions in that area, analysts told Radio Free Asia.
The annual summit brings together leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, to discuss regional security and economic issues. China is participating this year as a dialogue partner, and the forum provides an opportunity to address the South China Sea, a persistent hotspot where China’s broad claims overlap with the exclusive economic zones of several Southeast Asian states.
Regional officials have said they aim to complete negotiations on the COC by 2026, but key issues, including its geographic scope, legal status and enforcement mechanisms, remain unresolved after more than two decades of negotiations.
Unlikely resolution
It is unlikely that a code resolving all disputes in the South China Sea could be worked out at this year’s ASEAN leaders’ summit, Joseph Kristanto, a research analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told RFA. The key question at the summit will be whether significant progress can be made in easing tensions.
“While the COC may help prevent misunderstandings in everyday interactions, I would argue that it is unlikely to put an end to gray zone activities or coercive behavior by claimant states, including China,” he said. “Therefore, it is better to view COC as a mechanism for managing friction rather than transforming the underlying dynamics of the conflict. »
Agreements aimed at reducing friction have already been attempted. ASEAN and China signed a non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in 2002 and began formal negotiations on a binding code in 2013. Progress since then has been described as slow by some officials.
COC negotiators face a fundamental tradeoff between a politically feasible but limited “lightweight” code based on general principles and a stronger framework with clearer rules and enforcement mechanisms that would be harder to implement, Kristanto said.
“The slow pace of the COC process demonstrates the complexity of these issues and exposes the limits of ASEAN’s consensus approach,” he said.
Other analysts say China’s frequent provocations in the region make them skeptical that a deal could make a meaningful difference in practice.
“My pessimism about the COC really comes down to two things: China’s record of undermining or ignoring its existing agreements, and the question of who would actually take charge of consolidating a ‘legally binding’ COC,” Ray Powell, executive director of Stanford University’s SeaLight maritime transparency project, told RFA.
Powell noted that the 2002 declaration already committed the parties to exercise restraint and resolve disputes peacefully, but tensions persisted.
“This experience shows that the problem is not the absence of written rules but the absence of any authority that China is willing to accept beyond its own political will,” he said, adding that a meaningful code would require an enforcement or arbitration mechanism that Beijing has historically rejected.
A weaker version, he warned, could risk undermining existing legal protections for Southeast Asian states under international law.
Legal issues
Others argue that even a limited agreement could still play a role in stabilizing everyday interactions, provided it is anchored in established international legal frameworks.
“A substantial and comprehensive COC on the South China Sea would not only aim to ease tensions between the Philippines and China,” Josue Raphael J. Cortez of De La Salle College of Saint Benilde in the Philippines told RFA.
“Instead, it would be an inclusive document, based on UNCLOS and public international law, which should pave the way for all claimant States to co-exist responsibly and peacefully,” he said, referring to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Cortez said a meaningful code should go beyond traditional issues such as fishing and shipping to include broader resource-sharing agreements, including oil, gas and critical minerals, reflecting the region’s evolving economic challenges.
Although a legally binding framework could help reduce tensions, he warned that it should be supported by ongoing dialogue and mechanisms to ensure compliance.
“Forging such an agreement will never be enough,” he said. “Instead, an ongoing dialogue… still needs to be pursued to ensure compliance and whether future revisions can be undertaken for the viability of the framework.” »
The 48th ASEAN Summit is scheduled to kick off from May 5 to 9 in Cebu, Philippines.
Edited by Eugene Whong.