The “fun” part of politics in Kazakhstan is gossip and rumors. The latest is perhaps the most surprising. For several weeks, Kazakhstan’s social networks have been full of rumors that Dariga Nazarbayeva would become vice-president of the country.
THE March 15 The constitutional referendum, among other things, introduced a vice-presidential position appointed by the president.
A career politician, Dariga Nazarbayeva is the eldest daughter of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who left power in 2019 after three decades at the helm of the country. Once Kassym-Jomart Tokayev came to power, a slow process of “de-Nazarbayevification” launched. The pace of this process accelerated after Qandy Qantar, the violent repression of urban demonstrations in January 2022. At the time, elites still close to Nazarbayev were accused of having stoked the protests and orchestrating a coup attempt.
In this context, Dariga was already on the verge of leaving politics. She had been promoted became president of the Senate after Tokayev became president, but she was rejected in May 2020, just days before his birthday. Since Dariga received this sour birthday present, she has been virtually absent from Kazakhstan’s political scene. She served as an MP for the ruling Nur Otan party between 2021 and 2022, but with much less flair than in previous years. In 2022, Nur Otan renamed Amanat.
In January 2022, when the country was in a state of emergency, with military patrols on the streets of Almaty and limited access to the internet, political scientist Marat Shibutov surprisingly named her among the few people who would benefit from the support of the Kazakh people.
Dariga resigned from his position a few weeks later and disappeared from the public eye.
Shibutov enjoyed his own rise in political circles by pledging allegiance to the new direction of the Tokayev government. He was chosen to become a member of the national Kurultai – an advisory institution – and later a member of the commissions for parliamentary and constitutional reforms.
But how did the latest rumor that Dariga would become vice president come about?
On May 7, Dariga’s birthday, a new political party was founded. Adilet (“Justice” in its Kazakh translation) was established as hastily as the institutional reforms previous months have been adopted. Adilet seems to embody the spirit of new constitution. Its visibility was reinforced by the appointment of Aibek Dadebai, Tokayev’s former chief of staff, to its presidency.
Now, the upcoming parliamentary elections will see Amanat, the ruling party, and Adilet, the new poster child, clash and possibly establish dual power, while both remaining loyal to Tokayev’s policies.
Some analysts disagree, however. Andrei Chebotarev said in early May that the creation of Adilet reminded him of Dariga’s Asar party in the early 2000s. “There could be a hint of rivalry between the Amanat and the Adilet, similar to the rivalry between [Nur] NATO and Asar,” Chebotarev said Kursiv.
Asar was created in 2003 with great ambitions for power, but it was ultimately merged in the ruling Nur Otan party in 2006.
However, once Dariga began to be mentioned alongside Adilet, the rumor mill began to produce more and more surprising predictions. And because of Shibutov’s presence among Adilet’s founders, people “connected the dots” and argued that this could be a play for his return to politics.
When pressed by the media about this rumor, a number of politicians expressed negative opinions towards the idea.
“I think Dariga Nursultanovna’s time is over. She is, let’s say, a rather toxic politician,” said Aidos Sarym, a deputy from the ruling Amanat party.
“I absolutely do not believe that she can become vice president or prime minister. I don’t know what should happen in the country for us all to suddenly change our minds and say: ‘Come on, Dariga Nursultanovna, come and put us in order.’ Honestly, I don’t see that happening,” Sarym told the press on May 20.
On the same day, MP Abzal Kuspan also said that he did not consider Dariga’s return possible. “Honestly speaking, I don’t think she would be right for the role [of vice president]», Kuspan said.
Despite the fact that the party was founded on Dariga’s birthday and a few other coincidences, it would be difficult to link her directly to Adilet, a new party that cited “law and order,” Tokayev’s main refrain, as a key mantra. However, in the absence of greater clarity from the government on the country’s institutional and political future, rumors will continue to spread.