While President Yook Suk-Yeol is waiting for the Constitutional Court to decide on his dismissal, the survey shows a large disapproval of his presidency. What does this mean in the future?
Yoon narrowly won the presidency in 2022 against Lee Jae-Myung of the Democratic Party (DP). In what has been nicknamed a “Unmanageable election“” allegations of corruption And negative campaigns are disabled Many voters. Yoon experienced an approval rate at its inauguration of approximately 53%; At the fall of 2024, his prices had dropped to 13% And 11% In two December polls, Gallup, showing the audience of the public in the face of his martial law declaration on December 3.
However, some polls have found a resurgence of Yoon since then, in part because of the distrust of the opposition parties. In particular, the Kopra Poll in January Put the 40%Yoon approval rating.
Presidential approval rates generally decrease over time; For example, the predecessor of Yoon, Moon Jae-in, Saw His lower support about half over time, although its 45% outgoing note was always the highest for any South Korean president at the end of their mandate.
For Yoon, several scandals involving First Lady Kim Keon-Hee, including allegations of acceptance of luxury gifts, tarnished her image of anti-corruption champion. Critics also claim that Yoon was ineffective in the fight against inflation and unemployment. However, Yoon’s declaration of martial law On December 3, quoting the threats of the “anti-state forces” which would have linked North Korea despite any imminent action of the regime, generated an immediate and severe reaction. Yoon’s decree prohibiting any political activity and giving it press control quickly reminded citizens the authoritarian era. This decision met with rapid opposition from the National Assembly controlled by the opposition, the legislators arriving at night to cancel the declaration. Yoon immediately canceled the order, but the damage has already been caused, with the National Assembly Vote to draw He eleven days later.
Yoon was not apologized either, Blame the opposition DP for hampering its program, including the budget. Yoon claims that the obstruction of the DP forced him to act. In addition, supporters of his Power Party people (PPP) stay with yoonclaiming that he defended the country against anti-democratic elements within the DP. Some in the PPP even claim, without evidence, that the DP stole the elections of the National Assembly 2024.
The Constitutional Court has not yet declared whether Yoon’s dismissal will be maintained and the history of the dismissal are mixed. The court rejected the dismissal of Roh Moo-Hyun but maintained the Parc de Geun-Hye. In the light of the two Pro and anti-yoon protests While the court is preparing to make its verdict, I questioned the Koreans to determine how the public assesses the presidency of Yoon at the moment, in an environment which remains very partisan.
I conducted a national web survey from February 24 to 27 via Macromill Embrain, using the sampling of quotas for age, sex and the region. The survey asked 1,000 South Koreans “do you approve or disapprove of President Yoon’s performance?”
Only 8.8% of respondents approved Yoon’s performance, with more than three -quarters (76%) indicating disapproval. Approval has decreased even more people without a party preference. As expected, supporters of the DP opposition massively disapprove of Yoon’s performance, while a plurality of those of the Yoon PPP still supports it (44.81%).
The decomposing by political ideology, those who have identified as slightly very gradually disapproved (94.74%) of Yoon, compared to a conservative plurality (45.93%) and a majority of moderates (77.61%). A certain variation by gender also emerges, men twice as likely to approve (11.79% against 5.70%), but with the majority of men and women who look at the presidency of Yoon (73.87% against 78.21%). Little difference has emerged in other demographic factors such as education and income.
The results of this survey provide important information both on Yoon’s position and the wider political landscape in South Korea. The dismissal of Yoon – followed in a short time by the indictment of the president who became the president who has become an actor Han Duck -SOO – exacerbated instability and effective governance, but it has not necessarily rewarded the opposition. While some conservatives defection Yoon, a nucleus of his constituency remains favorable, positioning Yoon as a victim. In particular, in a country where the parties separated frequently and merge, no strong viable conservative alternative to Yoon has emerged. This despite the fact that even if the Constitutional Court confirms the dismissal of Yoon, he would not be able to purge the rest of his five -year mandate limited by the Constitution.
Events surrounding the Declaration of Martial Law of Yoon and subsequent dismissal test the resilience of the country’s democratic institutions. In the survey, we have also asked questions about confidence in several political institutions.
For the presidency, only 22% of respondents said they had a lot or much confidence, against 40.8% by indicating none or very little. Among those who approve Yoon, 64.77% trusted the presidency, at only 16.45% of those who disapproved of the presidency of Yoon.
However, the National Assembly did not behave much better, with only 14.10% with a trust against 56.9% not having very little. It should be noted that confidence in the legislature differs little between approved people and those disapproving of Yoon (14.77% and 16.71%, respectively) or between supporters of the DP and the PPP (24.78% and 22.08%, respectively), but evaluated an abyssal of 8.31% among those who have an identification without part.
In addition, although about two -thirds of the respondents (64.7%) said that “democracy is always preferable to any other type of government”, 19.3% on the whole, “in certain circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic government”. Among PPP supporters, this rate increased to 38.31%.
Even if the Constitutional Court invades Yoon’s dismissal, it will face an enharmed opposition and an audience which remains extremely critical of its presidency. This would not answer how the underlying problems of hyper-partisaneria and institutions will feed instability by making compromises and more and more difficult cooperation. With approval notes as low as 8.8%, a yoon which survives the indictment will probably feed these divisions rather than restoring institutional confidence.