Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in France on June 17 was expected to stabilize relations that have been troubled over the past year.
Trump praised Modi effusively. He told reporters that the two leaders shared “great relations” and that India had “a great friend in the White House” for as long as he was president.
However, there is little reason for India to believe that India-US relations will return to the strong partnership that existed before Trump returned for his second term.
Trump reassured India of its defense support. “I can tell you – without a contract, we have no contract – but if (India) was attacked, we would be there to help them,” he said, adding: “If someone attacks this man [Modi]we’re going to be there.
It was not immediately clear who Trump was referring to as India’s adversary.
India is not a U.S. ally, although it has struck deals since 2005 that have deepened defense cooperation. American ships now regularly call at Indian ports for repairs and resupply.
India has strained relations with Pakistan and has an unresolved border with China, which it views as its strategic competitor. Ties between the United States and Pakistan have warmed under Trump 2.0 and Washington is seeking to repair ties with China. In the event of an armed conflict with Pakistan or China, will the United States “be there to help” India as Trump promised?
In his remarks to Trump, Modi said that since their previous meeting in Washington in February 2025, bilateral relations have been reinvigorated with “new momentum” and “new energy”. The two countries are striving to achieve the goals set at their February 2025 meeting, he said.
Modi also praised Trump’s efforts to bring “peace and stability to the region” following the Iran-US conflict. He called for measures to ensure the safety of sailors during the implementation of the Iran-US peace deal, noting that hundreds of thousands of Indian sailors were deployed on ships, including in the Strait of Hormuz. He said he hoped Trump would prioritize the safety of sailors.
Modi’s remarks follow the deaths of three Indian sailors in an attack by a US aircraft earlier this month off the coast of Oman. The killings have sparked anger in India, with many questioning the strategic partnership between India and the United States.
A statement from U.S. Central Command said the shootings took place “after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with instructions from U.S. forces” imposing a blockade in the Gulf of Oman to prevent oil sales by Iran during the conflict. Reports later indicated that the company operating the vessel denied carrying illegal goods.
In New Delhi, India summoned US charge d’affaires Jason Meeks twice, first to protest the shooting of the Indian crew, then after the deaths of his sailors. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar also spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose remarks that “violations of the US blockade and illicit transportation of Iranian oil will not be tolerated” only added to the sense of outrage felt by Indians.
When asked by reporters on June 17 if he shared his condolences for the deaths of the Indian sailors, Trump said: “It’s a tough job, there’s no doubt about it, and we’re working on it together…We all love these people, they’re great people.” » However, there was no apology, not even an expression of regret.
It is worth noting that throughout the crisis caused by the US attack on the ship carrying the Indian crew, the Modi government refrained from naming the US. Naturally, this drew criticism from the opposition Congress party.
Indian analysts doubt that the Trump-Modi meeting will lead to a stabilization of bilateral relations. Its impact would be “very limited,” C. Uday Bhaskar, a former Indian Navy commodore and strategic affairs analyst, told the Diplomat.
Trump’s imposition of 50% tariffs on India last year was among the highest in the world. His repeated statements demanding the ceasefire that ended India-Pakistan hostilities in May 2025 have irked India. Meanwhile, Trump was reportedly angered that India did not support him for the Nobel Peace Prize after Pakistani leaders did so. Trump has also repeatedly belittled India as a “dead economy” and “hell”.
These factors have contributed to a marked slowdown in bilateral relations over the past year.
A US delegation is expected in New Delhi later this month to hammer out a trade deal that has been under negotiation for months. A pact could help repair some of the damage done, but not all.
On the one hand, there is a marked shift in US priorities, with the Trump administration focusing on “America First” and prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and the Pacific, as outlined in its National Security Strategy released in November 2025. This dilutes India’s importance in the US security calculus and its role as a major partner in Asia, Bhaskar said.
In this context, the Trump administration’s June 16 announcement that it would revert the name of its Hawaii-based command as U.S. Pacific Command, from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, is not surprising.
“The United States under President Trump has been explicit about its desire to put America first. This implies that Washington will be reluctant to devote resources or strategic attention to regions and issues where it does not see a clear national interest,” Abhijit Singh, a former Indian navy captain and currently an analyst at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, told The Diplomat.
The tacit implication of this return to the name is that the United States is deprioritizing the Indian Ocean, contrary to former US President Barack Obama’s Pivot to Asia strategy. In 2012, then-Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta described India as the “lynchpin” of America’s rebalance toward Asia. India had welcomed the move as it fit with its own vision of a multipolar Asia, with the United States strengthening security in the broader Indo-Pacific region amid the rise of China.
Adding to India’s concerns about the United States under Trump are abrupt policy changes. A June 12 US government order banning all foreign nationals from accessing advanced AI models on grounds of national security has hit India hard. Although the move was not particularly aimed at India, Indian technology companies are concerned, given their dependence on advanced American technology.
“The Indian IT services industry was built on the assumption of open access to the world’s best technology. This assumption has now become seriously weakened. This creates a competitive disadvantage, but the deeper risk lies in strategic dependence,” Nikhil Narendran, a thought leader on technology policy, was quoted as saying by the Economic Times.
Interestingly, during a visit to India in March, US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau had touted India as a possible competitor to the United States. India “should understand that we’re not going to make the same mistakes with India that we did with China 20 years ago in saying, we’re going to let you develop all these markets, and then the next thing we know, you’re beating us in a lot of trade areas,” he said.
Taken together, these developments underscore the need for India to reexamine the extent of its dependence on the United States and protect itself from shocks.
Once seen as India’s partner of choice for technology, innovation and investment as India sought to become a developed economy by 2047, the United States is now seen as an unreliable partner. This could explain the reason for India’s growing rapprochement with Europe, with Modi and Jaishankar making multiple visits to countries on the continent to strengthen their ties.