Summer box office could generate first $10 billion since pandemic

Hollywood is having its best summer since before the pandemic, and this hot streak is helping the annual box office exceed $10 billion for the first time in seven years.

The season, which runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day, has grossed $1.8 billion so far through Sunday. This represents a decline of less than 2% from 2019 levels, a shift of approximately $30 million. Industry analysts closely monitor this time of year, as it typically accounts for about 40% of the total annual domestic box office.

“The summer box office is extremely important,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of market trends at film data company Rentrak. “This is vitally important in terms of the overall health of the industry and what this portends for the full year.”

What sets this summer apart is that it didn’t kick off with a blockbuster action movie or superhero team-up. Instead, the season’s first big hit came with the release of Disney “The Devil Wears Prada 2”, followed by Universal A24’s “Obsession” and “Backrooms,” two low-budget horror films from YouTube creators turned filmmakers.

It was also fueled by residual ticket sales from Lionsgate “Michael”, the biopic of Michael Jackson, released at the end of April.

Together, these four films have contributed nearly $850 million to the domestic summer box office since the beginning of May, according to Rentrak data. This notably represents the total amount of Disney and Marvel’s “Avengers: Endgame” at the 2019 box office during the same period.

Last week’s release of Disney and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” brought further momentum, posting a franchise record opening of $160 million.

Together, the handful of positive surprises result in a stronger-than-expected domestic box office and a promising base for the second half as the industry continues to pre-pandemic levels.

As of Sunday, the 2026 box office was $4.4 billion domestically, about 15% less than the $5.2 billion the 2019 box office collected during the same period.

Movies like “Michael”, “Obsession” and even Amazon MGM “Project Hail Mary,” released in March, is holding strong at the box office week after week.

Typically, after opening weekend, a title sees a 50% to 70% drop in sales. But these films were experiencing declines of 20 to 40% each week.

“Obsession” achieved an even rarer feat at the box office as ticket sales actually increased in its second and third weekend in theaters, up 39% and 14%, respectively, according to data from The Numbers.

This success is a sign that the films enjoy strong word of mouth among audiences and attract new moviegoers to theaters.

“It’s just one after another,” said Alex DelVecchio, general manager of the Rutgers Theater in Piscataway, New Jersey. “I always said the whole year was about getting to June 19. Because once you get to June 19, you hit that date six weeks in a row. It’s Toy Story, ‘Supergirl,’ Minions, ‘Moana,’ [‘The Odyssey’] and Spider-Man.”

The combined efforts of these six films could bring the summer box office to $4.2 billion, Dergarabedian said. The summer box office has only topped $4 billion once since 2019, and that’s thanks to Warner Bros.’ dual effort. Universal’s “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” in 2023, Rentrak data shows.

This threshold would mark a return to a normal pace for the summer box office, which raked in more than $4 billion virtually every year between 2013 and 2019 before Covid closed theaters.

Universal’s “The Odyssey,” directed by Christopher Nolan, is currently on pace to achieve an opening weekend of more than $100 million and is expected to benefit significantly from high-end large-format screenings.

Sony “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” made in collaboration with Disney’s Marvel Studios, could do even better, with some analysts forecasting $200 million to $250 million for its opening weekend.

“‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ could be the biggest opening weekend of the year,” Dergarabedian said. “And it opens July 31. What’s that going to mean for the month of August? Well, a lot, because it’s going to add and contribute a lot to the box office for the month. Then it sets up a fall and holiday period.” [where] I don’t think we’re going to see such a slowdown. »