Super Bowl ad prediction market contracts spark insider trading concerns

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Sport newsletter with Alex Sherman, bringing you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the world of sports and media. Register to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.

For many Americans, the best part of the Super Bowl is the commercials. This year, you can also make – or lose – money from them.

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket currently have deals in progress for which the companies will run ads during Super Bowl 60, which features the Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots and takes place on February 8 in Santa Clara, California. For example, users can decide whether Salesforce, Verizon or Coca-Cola will have a place in the Super Bowl this year.

While Polymarket’s trades are just a “Yes/No” bet, Kalshi has some slightly more nuanced predictions, such as: “Who will appear in a big game ad before February 9, 2026?” ”, with transactions available for Sydney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet and Harry Styles.

It’s a novelty for the advertising industry’s biggest night. The price of Super Bowl commercials increases each year as Super Bowl television viewership continues to grow. Last year’s game was watched by a record 127.7 million viewers. This game, broadcast by Fox, generated approximately $7.5 million per 30-second spot, with a dozen commercials totaling more than $8 million.

This year, NBC, which will broadcast the game, sold its entire ad inventory, averaging $8 million per 30-second ad, with between five and 10 ads selling for more than $10 million each, according to Mark Marshall, NBC’s president of global advertising and partnerships. The closer a company buys advertising space to the game, the more it pays.

According to Marshall, tech companies bought the most spots this year, although NBC defines tech relatively broadly: Uber Eats, for example, is considered a tech company. Only two car companies advertise during the game. This year, about 40 percent of advertisers have never purchased Super Bowl space before, Marshall said.

But the arrival of prediction platforms on the market means Marshall has reason to keep the details on the sidelines.

For those unfamiliar with how these prediction markets work, they essentially trade like stocks, with contracts priced between $0 and $1. Contracts trade up or down depending on the action.

For example, for “Which brands will advertise during the 2026 big game?” » on Kalshi, Spotify climbed on January 19, from $0.35 to $0.69 before stabilizing. As of Friday morning, a “Yes” contract for Spotify was priced at $0.37.

If the predicted outcome materializes, you get paid, with winning contracts paying $1 each, less fees.

Polymarket and Kalshi also offer other Super Bowl prediction exchanges, including “What songs will be played at halftime?” », “Who will attend the big match? » (Lionel Messi? Elon Musk?), and more traditional sports betting “bets” such as “Seattle vs. New England: the most rushed projects”.

Although direct sports predictions, such as rushing yards, are unknown events, there are likely hundreds, if not thousands, of employees who know if their company is planning to air a Super Bowl commercial. This makes some contracts ripe for insider trading.

Existing laws prohibit insider trading in prediction markets, but industry experts are skeptical that a gutted Commodity Futures Trading Commission has the will or the personnel to control such problems.

Meanwhile, the question of whether sports event contracts constitute financial derivatives or gambling divides the sports gambling industry – and binds the federal courts.

“A few courts have ruled that sports-based event contracts are not derivatives subject to CFTC authority,” said Jack Murphy, senior counsel at Akin Gump and a former CFTC enforcement attorney. “These decisions are subject to appeal. If sporting event contracts are not derivatives, then criminal authorities could still pursue insider trading in prediction markets under a theory of wire fraud.”

On Thursday, Michael Selig, the CFTC’s new chairman, said he had asked the agency’s staff to withdraw a proposed rule banning the trading of predictions on sports and politics. He said new rules would be coming.

Meanwhile, live sports continue to fuel the growth of the prediction market. Kalshi is on track to see 44% monthly growth in total trading volume, according to Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley. The contract on “Who will win the Super Bowl?” has already accounted for over $150 million in trading volume.