A political party needs a few basic elements to maintain a majority in Congress. To maintain a majority, a party needs money, a record of accomplishments and incumbents.
Voters are often creatures of habit.
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Congress as a whole may remain extremely unpopular, but this unpopularity often does not extend to individual members of Congress. This dynamic explains why it is possible for Congress to have an approval rating of 25-30%, but 98% of incumbents are re-elected.
Having an incumbent president is usually a pretty big advantage in a House election.
However, incumbents are not stupid.
The House minority is less powerful than the Senate minority. Life in a minority in the House can be pretty miserable, so when incumbents feel that a a wave of elections could happen To sweep away the majority party from Congress, many of them tend to retire and head for the exit.
Democrats have had their own retirement cycle, but Democratic retirements have been different. Democrats who retire are in their 70s and 80s. House Democrats have been in the midst of a generational shift for a few years now.
What happens to Republicans as we approach 2025 and 2026 is different.
Republicans have clung to Trump, but the president is an unpopular rock that threatens to sink every vulnerable member of the party.
The GOP sees the wave coming, and many of them are breaking away from Trump and moving to higher ground.
Story continues below.