The visit to the end of March of the American defense Pete Hegseth in Manila – his first since his post office – aroused firm opposition from China, leading Beijing to express strong diplomatic and military concerns. Despite HegSeth’s insurance during his tour in Asia -Pacific – who also took him to Guam and Japan – as the United States “Do not seek war, but peaceAnd its declared objective to strengthen alliances towards a shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, China is not convinced.
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense explicitly characterized an increase in Filipino-American military cooperation as “Aggravating regional tensions“Warning that China would take the necessary measures to protect its sovereignty and safety interests. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has criticized the intensification of military relations of the United Philippines-States, warning that such actions considerably strengthen regional tensions and Damn stability at the southern China Sea.
Beijing’s main concerns are specifically focused on deepening the military cooperation of the United Philippines-States, which includes increasingly practical and combat joint military exercises, improved arms sales and strategic military deployments. China considers these developments as a direct security challenge, not only in the Southern China Sea, but also alive with stability in the Taiwan Strait.
The Indo-Pacific Strategy to the second term of the Trump administration was initially perceived by some in Beijing as potentially moderate, as President Donald Trump A business leader. However, the approach of the Trump administration is now considered in China as an unequivocal confrontation. Consequently, China provides for a more controversial diplomatic relationship with the United States, as well as increased military preparations to deal with security incidents or potential clashes involving US forces in the region.
Scenarios increasing the alert level of China
The increased practice of joint military exercises has become an important trend since 2024. The Philippine-American joint exercises, such as the annual exercises of Balikatan, have been considerably intensified, moving to high intensity combat scenarios involving Island crisis operations and anti-ampairies.
A notable escalation occurred in 2025 when the United States deployed the prohibition system of shipped naval / advanced shipping ship (NMESIS) and non-pilot surface ships in Philippin territory, Improve the coastal typing capacities of the Alliance. These deployments explicitly thwart the strategy of anti-access denial / zone zone of China (A2 / AD), aligning directly with the new doctrines of the Marine Corps in the United States such as advanced expeditionary (EABO) basic operations and “replacement forces. “These movements report to Beijing a deep passage from simple deterrence to active preparations for potential conflict scenarios.
The formal entry of Japan into miniiilateral military exercises represents a particularly alarming signal for China. For the first time, Japan will officially participate As a troop contributor – not just an observer – in the next Balikatan exercise in 2025, involving around 15,000 staff from the United States, the Philippines and Australia. Japan’s inclusion marks a significant change towards institutionalization Japan-Philippines-US Cooperation of trilateral security. Beijing considers this as clear proof that the Trump administration does not only strengthen bilateral alliances, but actively forming a wider miniiilateral security coalition aimed at containing Chinese influence in North and Southeast Asia.
In addition, improved American sales of American weapons and strategic support in Manila are a significant step forward. In April 2025, the United States approved $ 5.58 billion arms packagingOffering up to 20 hunting advances Advanced F-16 Block 70/72 in the Philippines. These sophisticated planes considerably strengthen the maritime surveillance capacities of Manila, a precision strike and anti-access capacities, in particular thanks to the integration of anti-ship missiles. The United States has also transferred unmanned advanced systems – including surface ships deployed in recent exercises – and Announced plans To provide MQ-9B Reaper drones, further improve Philippin intelligence and surveillance capacities. Beijing considers this substantial escalation in support for weapons as an effort calculated to establish a “deterrenceExplicitly consulted to force China’s maritime activities.
The explicit incorporation of the Taiwan Strait scenarios in military exercises represents a critical turning point in the cooperation of the defense of the United Philippines-States. At the beginning of 2025, the chief of staff of the Philippine Armed Forces, General Roméo Brawner, publicly recognized that Manila would be “inevitably attracted“If a conflict occurs in the Strait of Taiwan, explicitly ordering that the Philippine Forces in the north of Luzon are preparing. Balikatan 2025 exercises specifically integrate scenarios simulate the cross conflict, confirming to Beijing that Manila’s safety alignment Implies directly He in the geopolitical tensions of Taiwan – an unprecedented development and deeply concerning.
A strategic emphasis on the north of Luzon for forward deployment is a characteristic of the strategic reorientation of the United States, with three of the four new EDCA military sites established near Taiwan and the fourth positioned in Palawan, directly opposite the disputed islands. These substantial bases Improve American capacity To project the force near the crucial maritime points, in particular the strategically important Bashi canal between Taiwan and the Philippines. The deployment of missile systems and joint military exercises intensified in areas such as the Batane Islands have further strengthened the perception of Beijing according to which the military alignment of the Philippines-States explicitly targets maritime access and strategic maneuver of China.
Finally, the high -frequency persistent presence of the American army in the Southern China Sea more intensifies the strategic concerns of Beijing. In 2024 only, the major recognition planes carried out around 1,000 missions near Chinese territory, and ocean surveillance and measurement ships accumulated 706 days of activity, marking a significant increase compared to 2023, according to the a report Posted by the South Sea Strategic Strategic Situation Initiative, a leading Chinese reflection bank. In addition, three carriers of carriers – USS Carl Vinson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln – have undertaken eight patrols and nuclear submarines have maintained regular operations. The missions of strategic bombers of the American Air Force almost doubled, with 56 outings involving b-52h, B-1B and B-2A planes, stressing a Increased operational tempo.
This military activity transmits an American posture “quasi-appliance” near the maritime outskirts of China, not only signaling deterrence but the active encirclement from the point of view of Beijing.
China potential answer: target Washington, not Manila
By formulating its strategic response to the security partnership of the Philippines and the United States strengthened in the context of the renewed Indo-Pacific strategy of Trump, China will probably transfer its diplomatic and strategic pressure towards Washington rather than to directly confront Manila.
During the first Trump presidency and later under Biden, China mainly criticized the Southern China Sea policy of Manila and exercised a restraint to confrontation with the United States to avoid military climbing. However, the recent approach of China to the intensification of the trade war initiated by the United States reports reciprocitycorresponding to American measures with proportional countermeasures. If Beijing applies a similar “Tit-For-Tat” strategy in the management of security tensions in the Southern China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, it would inevitably imply a plus Direct strategic competition With Washington, in accordance with the concerns expressed by certain American decision -makers and analysts.
In addition, recent developments suggest that Beijing adopts a more nuanced approach to Manila. During the last high -level Chinese political meeting focused on “the construction of a community with a common future with neighboring countries”, the seven members of the Permanent Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party attended, stressing the increased meaning that Beijing is now placed on regional diplomacy in the midst of tensions with Washington. The meeting notably defined the district diplomacy as “A priority zone in the global diplomacy of China. “He pointed out that China’s relationships with his neighbors are” currently in their best in modern times “. In this context, Beijing understands that overtimely punishing in terms of security with the risks of Washington alienating from other nations of Southeast Asia and undergoing good will carefully built in the world.
In the end, Beijing’s approach will carefully balance deter and diplomacy, clearly pointing that its strategic objections are oriented towards the Trump administration policies, not the Philippines as a sovereign nation. This strategy is designed to preserve the regional good will, avoid unnecessary friction with neighbors and strengthen long -standing diplomatic engagement from China with developing countries, guaranteeing broad international support in the context of the intensification of geopolitical rivalry.