Donald Trump’s second term as an American president has raised concerns in Pakistan for several reasons. Analysts stressed that with China and Indo-Pacific likely to be at the center of Trump’s foreign policy, the United States would favor links with India as part of its efforts to contain China. The Pakistani apprehensions that Trump 2.0 would incline to India has intensified after the joint declaration of India-US published at the end of the meeting of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Trump in February named Pakistan in relation to the cross-border terrorist attacks in India. The United States has also offered to sell India F-35 hunting planes.
India being at the center of Trump’s attention, would Pakistan be sidelined?
Here to give meaning to the Pakistani policy of Trump is Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States and currently a senior member of the Hudson Institute and the Diplomatic Academy of Anwar Gargash. In an interview with the editor in South Asia of the diplomat, Sudha Ramachandran, Haqqani said that Pakistan could withdraw attention if Al-Qaida and the Islamic State of the province of Khorasan (ISKP) constitute a “serious threat” for the United States, and if the United States decides to initiate military operations targeting the Iranic regime.
Pakistani relations in the past decade have been defined by the drop in American interest in Pakistan. What underlies this trend? And what could change that?
Geopolitics was the reason why American-Pakistani relations were strong during the Cold War and the war against terrorism. Changes in American geopolitical priorities are the reason for the drop in American interest in Pakistan. The United States needed Pakistan for spy operations targeting the Soviet Union and China in the 1950s and 1960s, then as a base for jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s American withdrawal has also ended Pakistan’s need to provide American troops.
The verification of the economic and military rise of China as a competing peer is now the central concern of the United States in its Indo-Pacific strategy. Successive American presidents have also deepened a strategic partnership with India in the hope of developing India as a rival of China. Over the past two decades, India, not Pakistan, has become the favorite American partner of the region.
However, Pakistan could withdraw our attention due to its location at the southern confluence, the center and Western Asia. It could be an anti-terrorist partner if the United States felt a serious threat from Al-Qaida and the Islamic State of the province of Khorasan (ISKP) in Afghanistan, and could be important if the United States decide to initiate military operations targeting the Iranian regime. Trump administration can also consider Pakistan as a source of critical minerals.
Although Pakistan is not considered a priority for American interests that it was before, this does not mean that it is not important. The United States simply cannot ignore a Muslim country with nuclear arms with 240 million people.
The joint declaration India-US published at the end of the recent visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington seems to have shaken Pakistan much more than previous declarations. For what? After all, the joint modestrump declaration of June 2023 also mentioned Pakistan by its name and called it to “ensure that no territory under its control is used to launch terrorist attacks”.
Over the past three decades, each American president has defended a solid strategic partnership with India. Successive joint statements over the past decade, both during bilateral summits and in quad meetings, have described “cross -border terrorism” as a joint American and Indian concern. Thus, the current declaration which called Pakistan was not new. He just reiterated that the new American administration, from the start, continued to tell Pakistan what the previous ones had done.
Pakistan was shaken because the declaration came so shortly after the inauguration of the new president. But the Trump administration is not conventional, and joint declarations mean less under this president, who will act in a transactional manner. This is why, shortly after the statement that criticized Pakistan by name, President Trump thanked Pakistan by name in his speech on the state of the Union at Congress.
After Modi’s visit and F-35 offer to India, Trump approved a $ 397 million package for the F-16 fighter fleet of Pakistan. It seems that the United States does not promote India in Pakistan but that its former armament game against each other. Your comments?
The package of $ 397 million for the Pakistan F-16 fleet was not unexpected and is the respect of a package of $ 450 million approved under the Biden administration. It does not reflect a resumption of military aid in Pakistan, as many in India believe it, but rather a long -standing American commitment to maintain the life cycle of all American equipment that has been sold to a foreign country.
The current Indian management wants the rest of the world, including the United States, adopts its own attitude of completely closing Pakistan until India concerns about terrorism are addressed to the satisfaction of India. It is unlikely that it will happen. As for arm the two sides, Trump is interested in improving the American economy and this involves selling weapons to the one who wants to buy them.
Like India, Pakistan also has reserves on strict American restrictions on the use of its military equipment in conflict. But while India buys US weapons under foreign military sales, Pakistan depends on foreign military funding or aid because of its economic situation. It is unlikely that the Trump administration will resume large -scale foreign military funding.
Pakistan Democracy Act is expected to be presented at the US Congress. What is its probable impact on Pakistani policy and Pakistani-American relations?
The question of whether the Pakistani democracy law is really adopted and, if it is adopted, becomes more than a symbolic element will depend on the question of whether the Trump administration is really concerned about democracy in other countries. So far, this administration does not seem as interested in promoting democracy abroad as the previous one. Even when the House of Representatives adopted a bipartite resolution in support of democracy and human rights in Pakistan in June 2024, this had little impact on the Biden administration policy towards Pakistan.
In his speech on the state of the Union on March 4, President Trump thanked Pakistan for arrested the activist ISKP who was responsible for the bombing of Kabul airport who killed American soldiers in 2021.
To guarantee cooperation in the fight against terrorism or to address other administration priorities, the Trump team will need better relations with the existing government and the military establishment of Pakistan. It would not be the first time that democracy and human rights have taken a rear seat in American-Pakistani relations. After all, international relations concern less ideology and more on interests.
Some analysts have said that freezing foreign help could open or extend a space for China. Could that happen in Pakistan? Is China interested in funding USAID-type projects?
Although China is unlikely to start giving help in the form of subsidies like USAID, space has certainly been created for China. The options for all countries dependent on aid, not just Pakistan, are now limited. Instead of access to USAID -type projects, they may be forced to contract high interest loans as part of the belt and road (BRI) initiative of China.
The challenge will arise in the fields of public health, education and human development, for which China does not grant loans or aid. If the United States does not offer human development aid, countries like Japan, the European Union, Saudi Arabia and water will likely have to intervene. For many countries, India will be an option, but it may not be the case for Pakistan.
China has historically provided little development aid to countries, preferring loans and economic investment. Pakistan, like other developing countries, has received limited aid from China, normally after natural disasters. Additional Chinese investments are likely to present themselves in the fields of energy and infrastructure.
Currently, approximately a quarter of Pakistan debt is due to China and it is unlikely that Pakistan seeks to increase this proportion and to risk becoming a Chinese dependence. We must not forget that Pakistan’s decision to ask for Chinese aid was mainly motivated by the desire to avoid much dependence on the United States depends on the capacity of Pakistan to better manage its economy, so that the permanent need for help decreases.
Could Pakistan emerge as an important partner in the United States while Trump targeting Iran was taking momentum?
Pakistan could take advantage of its strategic location vis-à-vis Iran, especially if it were to do by its Arab Gulf partners. But any manifest involvement against Iran will have an impact on Pakistan’s domestic policy and could cause a sectarian conflict. If Pakistan decides to associate with American and Arab countries to target Iran, it will have to calibrate its support to avoid the return of domestic flowers. There could be intelligence cooperation and secret assistance while officially proclaiming neutrality in a conflict involving an immediate neighbor.