Increased World Cup-related travel has yet to materialize for U.S. businesses

The 2026 World Cup is expected to bring a wave of football fans from around the world to North America. But the travel boom is shaping up less as a uniform push than as a city-by-city, game-by-game test of pricing power.

“The demand is real and positive, but it is not distributed evenly across host cities,” said Jay Wardle, president of travel data intelligence firm Sojern.

New flight booking data from Sojern shows most U.S. and Canadian host cities seeing year-over-year gains for the tournament window, led by Houston and Dallas. But Seattle and the three Mexican host cities are lagging behind last year.

The tournament begins Thursday in Mexico City and continues through mid-July, concluding with the final at New York New Jersey Stadium – better known as MetLife Stadium – in East Rutherford, New Jersey. It is the largest World Cup ever, with 48 teams, 104 matches and matches in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

For hotels, restaurants, airlines, ride-hailing companies and host cities, the pitch has been simple: more teams, more games, more fans and more spending.

FIFA has projected that the event could contribute up to $17.2 billion to U.S. GDP.

But Deutsche Bank said that even if it attracted 1.2 million international fans to North America, the overall economic impact would likely be limited in a US economy of this size – equating to a short-term GDP increase of around 0.05% if FIFA’s estimate was met.

The financial windfall will likely be unevenly distributed among cities, hotels, restaurants and other tourism-dependent businesses.

Airbnb said it expects its best event ever, surpassing the Paris Olympics in 2024. The company hopes to benefit families and groups looking for larger accommodations or lower per-person costs.

This could also benefit the length of travelers’ stay. Sojern data shows that more than three-quarters of World Cup travelers plan to spend six to 12 nights at their destination.

“We are quite excited about the impact of FIFA as we look at upcoming booking trends this summer,” Marriott CEO Tony Capuano told CNBC. “We are seeing very strong demand in US and non-FIFA cities”

Capuano said Marriott expects the World Cup to increase U.S. revenue per available room by about 40 basis points.

Marriott, the world’s largest hotel chain, said it is uniquely positioned because of its brand recognition and rewards ecosystem.

“Because of the breadth of our global footprint, we have deep experience, whether it’s FIFA, the Olympics or the Super Bowl,” Capuano said. “The booking patterns we are seeing match our expectations quite well.”

Capuano said some release of FIFA room blocks was expected and current bookings were “on track” with Marriott’s forecast. The most important variable, he said, will be in later rounds, where travel demand could vary depending on national team rankings.

Jim Allen, president of Hard Rock International and CEO of Seminole Gaming, said South Florida is already seeing World Cup-related momentum. Allen said more than half of the tickets for games in the Miami area were purchased by locals, while the rest came from tourists.

He said Miami’s deep ties to Central and South America help drive demand, along with the region’s existing tourism infrastructure and soccer culture.

For Hard Rock, Allen said the World Cup is already generating high-end international traffic. He said the company welcomes guests from multiple continents, some of whom are staying at Hard Rock properties for the first time.

He also said casino gaming tied to the event exceeded normal levels and rivaled the type of activity Hard Rock sees around major events such as the Super Bowl and Formula 1.

Sojern’s flight booking data shows a nearly 8% increase in Miami, with New York showing almost the same increase. Dallas-Fort Worth is seeing a jump of about 10% and an increase of almost 13% in Houston.

But not all cities are experiencing the same improvement. For example, flight bookings in Seattle are almost 21% lower than the same time last year.

The expanded World Cup format means more inventory and more tickets to sell for more matches. The marquee matches, host country matches and the final are still expected to attract high demand. But less-publicized group stage games in the NFL’s larger stadiums have been harder to fill, especially with ticket prices remaining high, on par with the rarity of the Super Bowl.

This creates a pricing challenge. Host cities and hoteliers have prepared for a one-of-a-kind event. But fans have to make practical decisions: which game is worth traveling to, how far they’re willing to travel, whether they want to stay in a hotel or short-term rental and whether the prices still make sense.

Rosanna Maietta, president and CEO of the American Hotel & Lodging Association, said hotel demand in host cities has “evolved differently than many initially anticipated,” in part because of lower-than-expected international attendance.

A survey conducted by the industry group in April showed that 80% of respondents said bookings were not meeting expectations. Some were furious that FIFA had canceled large blocks of rooms it had previously reserved.

But she said AHLA members are now seeing increased demand, which corresponds to shorter booking windows for major events.

“Unlike typical leisure travel, many visitors are still finalizing their plans and securing their tickets,” Maietta said. “The industry expects some acceleration in late bookings as individual matches approach and we believe stadium attendances will be strong.”

Sojern said 35% of hotel bookings in World Cup host cities historically occur in the last seven days before travel.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino played down any concerns over the disappointing travel results. He told CNBC’s Sara Eisen on Tuesday: “We should do the analysis after the World Cup is over. We’ve never seen this many requests for tickets.”

Deutsche Bank said hotel real estate investment trusts with greater exposure to full-service hotels could benefit from World Cup demand as team delegations, sponsors and corporate groups use not only rooms, but also meeting spaces and catering outlets. The company has typically built 50 to 75 basis points of revenue per available room into its tournament-related hotel REIT models. He also expects luxury hotels to benefit more than budget establishments.

Restaurants could be better placed to benefit greatly. Deutsche Bank said restaurant businesses stand to benefit from both tourism and watch parties, particularly restaurants near stadiums and host cities, delivery-heavy concepts such as pizza and chicken wings, and sports bars showing games in North American time zones.

Derek Evans, CEO of Marcus Samuelsson Group, told CNBC that in the restaurant industry, it’s too early to count your chickens.

“You haven’t really seen the fandom come out yet,” he said. “When your country’s team starts winning, that’s when travel budgets disappear.”

Ride-sharing companies such as Uber And Lyft demand could also increase around matches.

The key question for host cities is whether even the world’s biggest sporting event has a price ceiling.

Disclosure: Versant, parent company of CNBC, broadcasts Olympic coverage produced by NBC Sports on its networks, including USA Network and CNBC.