Regardless of how the current political crisis in the Solomon Islands develops, experts told Radio Free Asia that they do not foresee any change in the country’s close relationship with China.
The crisis came to a head in March, when 19 parliamentarians left the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele, who called on the Government of National Unity and Transformation, or GNUT, to join the opposition.
This created an opposition coalition of 28 members of Parliament, a majority of the legislature’s 50 seats. They immediately filed a motion of no confidence and called on Manele to convene Parliament so a vote could take place.
But Manele refused to meet and therefore remains Prime Minister.
Moving to Beijing
Manele has been described by observers as pro-China, as was his predecessor Manasseh Sogavare, under whom Manele was foreign minister.
Manele, then foreign minister, signed the 2019 deal to recognize China instead of Taiwan, and was a central figure in negotiating the 2022 security deal with Beijing that opposition leader Matthew Wale criticized as being too secretive and undermining the security of the Solomon Islands, based on drafts of the deal leaked before its signing.
Beijing even opened a police station in the capital Honiara, a move that sparked concern from the United States and Australia that China was expanding its security and surveillance capabilities beyond its borders.
Violent civil unrest erupted in 2021, with protesters claiming Sogavare was selling the country’s sovereignty to Beijing and calling for his resignation. Rioters attacked businesses in the capital Honiara’s Chinatown, set fire to one of Sogavare’s houses and attempted to storm Parliament.
Three years later, Chinese influence in the Solomon Islands was very present in the 2024 vote, with opposition candidates even saying that if elected prime minister they would cancel the security agreement and return to recognition of Taiwan, but Manele’s party won and he was sworn in.
Manele’s government is a continuation of Sogavare’s pro-Beijing stance, Joseph Foukona, a history professor at the University of Hawaii at Manoa who is originally from the Solomon Islands, told RFA.
“So in his role in the previous government, where Sogavare was prime minister, it is obvious that he promotes the one-China policy and his government is sort of aligned with that policy as well,” Foukona said.
But when asked what was the reason for the current division in the government, Foukona said there were no real details on why the 19 MPs defected, saying only that they must have “internal problems”.
The divide is not limited to the Manele government’s pro-China positions, Kathryn Paik, deputy director and senior fellow at the Australian chair at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, told RFA.
“There’s a lot more going on at the national level and there’s a lot of power play within Parliament that might have nothing to do with China and relations with China,” she said. “Parliamentarians are also going to use this relationship with China to their advantage, whether it’s to oust Manele or whether it’s a good argument against it.
But she added that it was likely that China had started building relationships with other Solomon Islands politicians as a cover, just in case they rose to power in the future.
And then?
The opposition, now known as the New Coalition, won a court case in mid-April, with the country’s High Court ruling that Manele was unconstitutionally delaying the vote.
Manele’s government has appealed the decision and the Court of Appeal is expected to deliver its judgment on Friday.
But even if he wins the appeal, Manele will eventually have to summon Parliament. Legally, the country’s constitution requires the body to meet at least once a year, and in practice it must adopt annual budgets to avoid a government shutdown.
Barring a breakup of the New Coalition or a withdrawal of the no-confidence motion, Manele will eventually have to confront the situation, which could lead to his ouster.
Whether Manele survives the vote or is ousted, the country’s relationship with China will remain the same, Paik said.
“I don’t expect a fundamental change,” she said. “China has established a fairly regular presence on the ground so far and we have seen no real pressure from any parliamentarian to change that significantly outside of Wale and some other opposition leaders.”
Manele already survived a vote of no confidence about a year ago, rejecting a motion led by his predecessor Sogavare.
Shortly after the 19 members of parliament switched sides in March, Manele appointed Sogavare as deputy prime minister in a bid to stabilize the remaining elements of his coalition.
Foukona said the on-again, off-again alliance between Sogavare and Manele is driven by their respective personal interests.
“It is generally said that in Solomon’s policy there is no permanent enemy,” he said.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry and its embassy in Honiara have not made any direct statements regarding the Solomon Islands since the political crisis began.
Edited by Charlie Dharapak.