In politics, there is an R-word that every political party that controls the White House fears.
The word is recession.
The last three times Democrats took over the presidency, the country faced an economic crisis. Joe Biden won in 2020 during COVID. Barack Obama won in 2008 during the Great Recession, and Bill Clinton, whose entire campaign was based on the economy, won the presidency in 1992 on George HW Bush’s recession.
After regaining power and returning to the Oval Office, Donald Trump embarked on a series of policies that, if one did not know, one might assume were intended to cause a recession.
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Trump has raised prices through wars and tariffs, while cutting taxes on the rich. A U.S. economy that was vulnerable has been hit by Trump, and the result is that the chances of the U.S. falling into a recession are increasing.
Semafor reported:
If oil prices remain high for several more weeks, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, predicts that the risk of a recession over the next 12 months will likely exceed 50%. Economist Mohamed El-Erian raised his forecast for a recession from 25% to 35%, citing the potential fallout from the war in Iran, such as an inflationary spiral driven by oil prices.
For global crude prices to stabilize, trade must resume across the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the American economy is resilient; it has only entered recession once in the past 17 years, for just two months during the pandemic.
There is a disconnect between the numbers looked at by politicians and economists and the reality of how millions of people currently experience life.
Job growth has virtually stopped. Prices have increased. People are losing their jobs. Wage increases are not keeping up with costs, and millions of people have lost or are losing health care.
The one thing that escapes those who look at the economy from 10,000 feet above sea level is that it’s not the “vibes” that make people feel bad about the economy. People feel bad about the economy because, to them, the economy is bad.
The recession is already here. It’s only a matter of time before the numbers catch up with what people already know when looking for a job, buying food, trying to pay bills or pay for health insurance.
Do you think the country is already in recession? Share your thoughts in the comments below.