A traveler checks flight information at LAX as the shutdown passes the one-month mark, leaving essential workers unpaid in Los Angeles, California, November 5, 2025.
Grace Hi Yoon | Anadolu | Getty Images
U.S. airlines are forecasting another record travel period for the Thanksgiving holiday and are optimistic now that the snarling government shutdown has ended.
Airlines will carry more than 31 million people between Friday, Nov. 21, and Monday, Dec. 1, Airlines for America, an advocacy group representing the largest U.S. carriers, predicted Thursday. The busiest days are expected to be the Sunday after Thanksgiving, with approximately 3.4 million passengers, followed by the Monday after Thanksgiving, with approximately 3.1 passengers.
Airline executives expressed relief after the longest government shutdown ended on November 12. The shortage of air traffic controllers, who had to work without their usual pay, delayed and canceled flights, disrupting the travel plans of some 6 million people, A4A said.
The industry is now pushing lawmakers to pass legislation to ensure air traffic controllers are paid in the event of another shutdown, with executives complaining in recent weeks that air travel is becoming a political bargaining chip. The latest bill only funds the government through January, so industry members hope to avoid a repeat of the shutdown just before the winter and spring holidays begin.
Bank of America has estimated that large airlines could see a $150 million to $200 million decline in operating profit and that smaller carriers would see a $100 million impact due to the shutdown, but the airlines have not yet released revised estimates.
Some travelers appeared to be waiting for the closure to end before booking their trip.
United Airlines said bookings between November 15 and 16 were up 16% from the previous weekend, when air travel disruptions increased.
The carrier also said international travel bookings hit a record for the holiday period, up 10% from last year, with Cancun, Mexico, and major European hubs London and Frankfurt, Germany, being the top destinations.
Overall, United expects to carry 6.6 million customers between November 20 and December 2, an increase of more than 4% from last year.
International capacity at the largest U.S. carriers increased about 5% between Nov. 26 and 30 compared to a similar period last year, according to aviation data firm Cirium, while domestic capacity is about 2% higher.
American airlines said it plans to operate 80,759 flights from November 20 to December 2, more than any airline.
“The Thanksgiving holiday season is one of the most condensed and important for our customers: the stakes are high and Team America is ready to deliver,” David Seymour, American’s chief operating officer, said in a press release.
However, not all airlines have strengthened their schedules. Budget airline Spirit Airlines, in its second bankruptcy in less than a year, has cut capacity and furloughed hundreds of pilots to cut costs as it seeks to find firmer financial footing.
Spirit’s domestic flight capacity is down nearly 40% from the previous year, according to Cirium data.