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More than a third of condominiums sold in Manhattan over the past year sold at a loss, even as the high end of the market fared better, according to a new report.
Despite the constant stream of headlines about eye-popping sales and soaring real estate prices in Manhattan, the median price per square foot of Manhattan condos is essentially flat compared to a decade ago, according to a report from Brown Harris Stevens. One in three condo resales between July 2024 and June 2025 were sold at a loss, according to the report. When inflation, transaction costs and renovations are included, condo sellers’ share of losses is likely even higher, real estate analysts say.
Although the data does not include co-ops, analysts say co-op prices have generally been the same as, or even slightly lower than, condos.
“Over the last decade, Manhattan has essentially moved sideways,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the real estate appraisal and research firm.
Long-term price weakness in Manhattan stands in stark contrast to most of the country, where housing prices have risen significantly since the pandemic, creating a widespread affordability crisis. According to Redfin, only 2% of home sellers nationwide who purchased a home before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss.
Manhattan remains one of the most expensive markets in the country, particularly per square foot. Manhattan’s median sales price in the third quarter was $1.2 million, while the average is just below $2 million, according to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Yet, in the longer term, an analysis of resales reveals that the timing of purchases in Manhattan generally matters more than the location.
Condo owners who purchased before 2010 fared the best. Median gains for those in this cohort who sold in the past year were between 29% and 45%, according to the Brown Harris report. Prices began to rise after the financial crisis, peaking in 2016. This means that for those who bought between 2011 and 2015, sales gains over the past year have been modest, around 11%.
The biggest losers are those who bought after 2016. Half of the buyers who bought between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss over the period studied. Among those who bought between 2021 and 2024, gains were slim — although some buyers who got deals at the height of the Covid recession, in late 2020 and early 2021, may fare better.
Adding other buying, selling and ownership costs would further compound the losses. Transaction costs in Manhattan can vary from 6 to 10%, depending on the brokers. Renovations and improvements are also not counted in losses, nor are maintenance costs or taxes. Adjusting for inflation would also increase losses and decrease returns.
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business, said inflation has increased 36% over the past decade.
“So if I had invested in a condo in Manhattan in September 2015 (near the peak) and sold it in August 2025 at the same nominal price, a nominal return of 0%, I would have actually lost 36% in real terms,” he said. “This is surprising since many people view real estate as a good hedge against inflation.”
He noted that the Case-Shiller national housing price index rose 89% in the 10 years between September 2015 and August 2025, “much better than New York and also well above inflation of 36%.”
The reasons for Manhattan’s “lost decade” in condo prices are as varied as they are contested. The capping of state and local tax deductions that began in 2018 put pressure on prices and demand, as did the 2019 rent law. The migration of some higher-income earners to Florida during Covid also heightened real estate fears, even as population and demand quickly rebounded.
The only exception to the trend was the top of the market. Those who bought and sold apartments for $10 million or more made double-digit profits, regardless of when they initially purchased.
Brokers and analysts say increased concentration of wealth at the top, rising stock markets and relentless demand from those less affected by economic and market cycles have enabled continued gains in the luxury market.
“The high-end segment has performed better over the decade, particularly in, say, the top 4 percent of the market,” Miller said. “The reason is Wall Street and the financial markets. And the ability to buy cash, regardless of interest rates.”
Two-thirds of apartment deals closed in the third quarter were done for cash, Miller said, which is well above the historical average of about 53% and shows the Manhattan market’s continued reliance on wealthy buyers who don’t need mortgages.
In a market characterized by frequent ups and downs, brokers say the current rally presents an opportunity for both buyers and sellers.
“I am optimistic and have a very positive outlook for New York real estate,” said Jared Antin, executive director of Brown Harris Stevens and co-author of the report. “Although some people may have lost money on trades [over the decade]losses were negligible. This speaks to the premium nature of the Manhattan market. Does everyone want to make money from their real estate? Of course. But this market is incredibly stable. »
Sellers who bought during the 2020 decline and early 2021 could also see profits when they start selling, Antin said.
Yet with median prices near historic highs and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming municipal elections, many potential buyers prefer to stay away and rent, even if they can afford to buy. The number of households in New York earning more than $1 million a year and renting more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, to 5,661, according to a report from RentCafe.
Additionally, signed contracts for high-end apartments – priced at $4 million or more – fell 39% in September, according to Olshan Realty, following increases in August and July. Brokers blame a rapid decline in inventory and a lack of new supply from condo developments rather than a drop in demand or fear that Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, could become New York’s next mayor.
“There is certainly a downside risk to the policy,” Miller said. “But as we have seen in the past, these fears are usually overblown.”