Shortly after Myanmar’s military-backed government thumbed its nose at the ASEAN presidency and rejected its request to meet with ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the Naypyidaw regime went further and announced that Laos was next on the agenda.
No date has been given for the first official visit to an ASEAN country by self-proclaimed President Min Aung Hlaing in the new global context of Myanmar., who indicated on July 1 that the visit would take place in the “coming days”.
But official scribes across the border had a little more to say.
The official Vientiane Times newspaper announced that Min Aung Hlaing would make the trip from July 3 to 5 “to mark the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Laos and Myanmar”, after an invitation from Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith.
By denying access to Suu Kyi – and rejecting the proof-of-life campaign launched by her son Kim Aris – and then traveling to Laos in an official capacity, Min Aung Hlaing carefully dug a ditch in ASEAN, much like a lumberjack felling a tree.
Fault lines within ASEAN have only deepened since mainland countries Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, known as the “CLM Club,” gained entry into the regional bloc in the late 1990s.
Differences with maritime ASEAN, including Vietnam, often centered on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, where the CLM Club acted as a proxy and disruptor on behalf of China.
ASEAN’s relations with Naypyidaw then virtually collapsed with Min Aung Hlaing’s coup in early 2021, which toppled Suu Kyi and plunged the country into a civil war that has left nearly 100,000 dead to date.
His staged election that made him president was not approved by ASEAN and the ban on his regime from participating in ASEAN summits remains in place.
But Laos and Cambodia have remained loyal to Myanmar as all three countries have become havens for organized crime, with their ruling elites profiting from pervasive networks of human trafficking and industrial-scale scams.
Meanwhile, Thailand, due to its geography, is blockaded and cornered by its mainland neighbors and has become a hotspot for ASEAN unity, with its Cambodian border remaining closed.
This follows the six-month Thai-Cambodian border war last year that originated with a decision by former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen to flout ASEAN doctrine and leak what was believed to be a private conversation with his then Thai counterpart, Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
Unity within ASEAN is little more than an illusion, but it is one that ASEAN presidents, whether continental or maritime, continue to cling to, as the Philippines – the current presidency – recently did with the resurrection of the Five Point Consensus (5PC).
The 5PC was ASEAN’s vehicle for finding a solution to Myanmar’s civil war, but it had faded from view as the toll mounted amid the bloody carnage and shelling of civilians, while Min Aung Hlaing ignored all international efforts to offer some respite to his own people.
In acknowledging the junta’s recent release of political prisoners and Suu Kyi’s transfer from prison to a “designated residence,” it was Philippine foreign affairs spokesman Dominic “Dax” Imperial who sounded optimistic, if overwhelmed.
“As Myanmar takes steps in a positive direction, we reiterate the importance of releasing all other prisoners, especially the elderly and infirm, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,” he said. “Such actions are essential to advance meaningful policy dialogue as envisaged in the 5FP. »
For more than five years, the Naypyidaw regime ignored attempts by the 5PC and ASEAN to end the conflict. This includes the sincere efforts of Hun Sen, who once described Min Aung Hlaing as a “brother”.
The former general has few friends he can count on, and so his first “official” tour of ASEAN as a self-made president is in Laos, another one-party state that, like Myanmar’s military regime and Cambodia’s government, is heavily dependent on China.
Min Aung Hlaing will continue his quest for legitimacy in defiance of most of ASEAN and much of the international community. But ultimately he can only return to a country where he is widely hated for the carnage inflicted since his coup five years ago.
An official trip to Phnom Penh could well follow.