The US-China summit held in Beijing on May 14, 2026 clearly showed what shape US-China relations will take for the remainder of the second Trump administration. In particular, the phrase “constructive and stable strategic relationship” announced by the Chinese in agreement with the United States is likely to have many implications.
Beijing had previously proposed a “new type of major-country relationship” in which China and the United States would respect each other’s core interests, a state the Chinese appeared to have accepted to some extent by the Obama administration at the time. However, bilateral relations deteriorated significantly towards the end of Obama’s term, and then the shape of relations became noticeably unclear during Trump’s first term. At the time, Japan had good relations with Washington, while China had normalized relations with Japan. This led to the famous episode where Chinese President Xi Jinping asked then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to convey Beijing’s intentions to Trump. Years later, and little has changed.
With the arrival of the Biden administration, China hoped to revive the new type of big-country relations that it had managed to establish with the Obama administration. He proved unable to do so. Rather, the relationship was defined as a “competitive relationship,” in which both parties agreed that they would avoid conflict, cooperate wherever possible, and dialogue would continue to properly manage the relationship. Under Biden, China and the United States have worked together on areas such as climate change, while also engaging in dialogue on national defense, diplomacy and trade. Particularly noteworthy is the use of the key words “no conflict” in this new type of international relations. Meanwhile, in the context of US-China relations under Biden, Japan revived the phrase “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests” with China, describing the relationship as building constructive and stable relations.
However, since Trump returned to power, it has become difficult to argue that the form of US-China relations of the Biden era has been maintained. For starters, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was barred from entering China while he was a senator. Exchanges on tariffs and other issues continued afterward, but starting around 2025, ministerial-level exchanges became gradually more frequent, thus gradually shaping U.S.-China relations during Trump’s second term. The recent summit has now provided a little more clarity. Even if the competitive relationship persists, it involves preventing conflicts and managing the relationship avoiding any intensification of competition, which could explain the use of the term “constructive and stable strategic relationship”.
Still, it makes little sense to view this as a throwback to the Biden era. What matters most is what Xi reportedly said about Taiwan, namely that “‘Taiwan independence’ and peace across the Taiwan Strait are fundamentally incompatible. Maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the greatest common denominator between China and the United States.” In other words, after emphasizing the term “constructive and stable strategic relationship”, Xi emphasized that if there is anything that can overturn this “stability”, it is Taiwan. His choice of words goes far beyond previous mentions of red lines and guidelines regarding the Taiwan issue.
Today, the main cause of the deterioration of relations between Japan and China is Taiwan. Relations between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the Democratic Progressive Party government in Taiwan – and particularly President Lai Ching-te – are closely watched, and Beijing’s objections to Takaichi’s November 7, 2025 remarks focus squarely on the Taiwan Strait. China believes that Takaichi is interfering in Chinese internal affairs by suggesting the use of armed force. Xi’s remarks on Taiwan during the US-China summit should be seen as pressure on Lai, especially ahead of the presidential election in January 2028. The Chinese likely see this as pressure on Takaichi as well.
Nonetheless, the Takaichi government has made it clear that it has not made any changes to the Taiwan policy in place since the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China in 1972. Even so, contrary to Japan’s intentions, China’s policy toward Japan is likely to become even more severe, keeping in mind the Taiwan issue and relying on relative stability in U.S.-China relations.