Republicans had looked at the 2026 Senate map and believed the party could be in a strong position to increase its majority. At least that’s the idea we thought at the start of Donald Trump’s second administration.
The president took office and embarked on a series of bad policies, including tariffs that slowed economic growth and raised prices. The president also got his party’s majorities in Congress to pass a tax cut for the rich’s bill, which was, in tiny part, financed by massive cuts in food and health insurance subsidies. The result of these policies is that people lose their health insurance or see their premiums skyrocket.
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Trump then launched a war of choice in the Middle East, which caused fuel prices to rise.
Democrats have made affordability the defining issue of the midterm elections. Democrats also scored a series of recruiting victories for the Senate races, where they got the candidates they wanted in states like Alaska and North Carolina, while Republicans built their strategy on maintaining their gains with Latino voters who abandoned them because of Trump’s immigration policies.
The political climate has created a perfect storm in Texaswhere two unpopular Republicans are engaged in a runoff, and the Democrats have their preferred candidate.
There are growing signs that a shake-up could be brewing in the Lone Star State, a new poll by Impact research for Talarico campaign revealed, “Talarico leads both Cornyn and Paxton. Cornyn trails Talarico by 2 points (43% Talarico / 41% Cornyn) and Paxton trails him by 1 (44% Talarico / 43% Paxton).”
To better understand what’s coming and how it’s happening, let’s look at the numbers.