Kazakhstan may be willing to make an exception to its ban on fuel exports if Russia requests emergency supplies. This was evident last week, when Reuters Sources reported that Russia requested a one-time shipment of petroleum products from Kazakhstan. Astana has reduced exports to try to meet domestic demand.
But with Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries in response to Moscow’s war of aggression, now in its fifth year, the Russian fuel market is in trouble.
On June 24, according to Reuters, Russia requested from Kazakhstan 50,000 tons of AI-92 fuel, the most common type of gasoline in the region, to alleviate the current shortage. This represents about 25 percent of the country’s total production.
There was no immediate comment from Kazakhstan’s government, with the Energy Ministry saying it had not received a formal request from Russia. Deputy Economy Minister Azamat Amrin told reporters: “When there is a concrete decision, we will let you know. »
On June 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted that the country was facing a gasoline deficit, due to ongoing repairs at major refining facilities hit by Ukrainian drones.
“Obviously, these attacks on our infrastructure create problems. This is obvious. For now, we observe a certain deficit, which is not critical,” Putin said.
For the first time in years, the Russian government in recent months banned the export of certain petroleum products, some of which it also sold to Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan has long experienced an unstable balance when it comes to petroleum products, such as gasoline, kerosene and jet fuel.
The country’s three refineries date from the Soviet era, but have undergone extensive repair work. The Atyrau refinery, located in the “oil capital” of Kazakhstan, is the latest to be closed for scheduled maintenance. The repair work, which began on June 26, will shut down production until July 15.
Kazakhstan’s quest for self-sufficiency has been repeatedly tested over the years, with the government and experts taking turns arguing for the construction of a fourth refinery. Although rumors about this have been spreading for around twenty years, no definitive decision has yet been made. Instead, the oil press is polluted by announcements of a “10 million ton, $10 billion refinery, which will be commissioned by 2033”, without there being a concrete site or contractor for a project of such scale.
The result is uncertainty. The Astana International Airport administration said it had enough fuel reserves for two weeks, a statement that rules out any reason for panic, but is far from long-term assurance.
In response to a possible shortage of jet fuel, Zhanel Kushukova, Deputy Minister of Commerce, said on June 25 that Kazakhstan could reduce tariffs on fuel, lubricants and jet fuel imported from China for a year.
“We are not completely self-sufficient in jet fuel,” Kouchoukova said.
And if Russia comes calling, there is no guarantee that Kazakhstan will be able to respond.
Senator Suyindik Aldashev said Azattyq Asia that Kazakhstan should first think about its own needs.
“No one can force us to give to this or that country. And this concerns not only gasoline. It also concerns diesel fuel and kerosene. Even aviation kerosene is currently in short supply for us,” Aldashev said.
In May, the government of Kazakhstan again renewed its ban on exporting petroleum products for six months.
In response to rumors of a possible transfer to Russia, the Energy Ministry reassured the local population that they would not experience a shortage of gasoline at the pump as Kazakhstan still holds around 1.1 million tonnes of fuel reserves.
Although a demand of 50,000 tonnes may seem like a drop in the ocean compared to 1.1 million tonnes, Kazakhstan is still struggling to achieve self-sufficiency and cannot afford to compromise its own energy security.
“Russia is a major supplier for Central Asia. We import gas, electricity and petroleum products from Russia,” said Olzhas Baidildinov, an oil and gas expert. BES.media. “About 40% of our domestic jet fuel consumption comes from Russia. »
Ten years ago, during a particularly sharp depreciation of the tenge and against a backdrop of capping gasoline prices in Kazakhstan, Russian motorists crossed the border to refuel, while residents of northern Kazakhstan crossed in the opposite direction in the hope of selling a full tank on the Russian market, given the large gasoline price differential.
As a result, stricter border controls and export bans were put in place. It is now possible that small-scale smuggling will resume, as Russian demand for fuel remains high.