NFL discusses deal with Paramount that could amount to another $1 billion

The NFL and Paramount SkydanceTalks of renewing a deal to keep the league’s Sunday games on CBS are starting to take shape, CNBC has learned.

NFL and CBS executives are negotiating a price increase, with a bid-ask spread of about 50% or 60%, according to two people familiar with the negotiations, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private. CBS currently pays about $2.1 billion a year, on average, for its Sunday afternoon games, CNBC previously reported. A 50% increase would mean CBS would pay more than $3 billion in its next deal.

In exchange for the increased revenue, the NFL would eliminate the opt-out clause after the 2029-30 season that it had in its original deal with Paramount, as part of an 11-year deal that extends through the end of the 2033-34 season. This clause would have given the league the opportunity to withdraw early.

CBS would begin paying the new fees starting next season for the next eight years for the same set of games.

Paramount’s adjusted projection for its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for 2026 is $3.6 billion. If the merger of Paramount with Discovery of Warner Bros. is approved by regulators, the combined company would have an adjusted EBITDA projection of $18 billion, Paramount Chief Financial Officer Dennis Cinelli told investors this month.

“We have a phenomenal relationship with the NFL, and we expect that to continue for the foreseeable future,” Paramount CEO David Ellison told CNBC earlier this month. “They are one of our most important partners, and we expect them to remain one of our most important partners, having delivered a historic season partnering with them. And, you know, the negotiations going on, we’re not really in a position to comment. I promise we’ll share something as soon as we have something to say.”

Comcastis NBCUniversal, Amazon Prime Video and Fox are also subject to the 2029-30 opt-out clause in their transactions. DisneyESPN and ABC have until 2031.

The league chose to begin negotiating with Paramount’s CBS before any other media partner because a change of control provision – stemming from Skydance Media’s acquisition of Paramount Global – allows the NFL to exit its deal by 2027.

The NFL could negotiate with Fox after CBS because the terms of the deal are expected to be similar — both companies own Sunday afternoon packages, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

Fox currently pays slightly more than CBS for its games package — about $2.2 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. Fox “will certainly look into [be] “Continue this mutually beneficial relationship” with the NFL, but it has yet to have “significant conversations” about a renewal, CEO Lachlan Murdoch said earlier this month at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference.

The NFL has also not entered into significant discussions with Amazon, NBC or Disney, according to people familiar with the matter. It’s unclear whether the league would consider moving forward with a similar 50% increase for those three packages.

Some NBC and Disney executives believe the relative strengths of their packages — Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football — have diminished as the NFL has offered Amazon better games for its Thursday Night Football in recent years, according to people familiar with the matter.

ESPN already pays $2.7 billion for Monday Night Football. A 50% increase would mean ESPN would pay more than $4 billion for that package — a figure Disney would likely balk at, according to people familiar with the matter.

The timing and scope of the NFL’s new deals could have a significant effect on the value of other sports’ rights in coming years.

The NHL currently has television deals with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery, which expire after the 2028 season. Bettman has had several conversations about renewing a deal before the NFL, according to two people familiar with the matter. Still, he will likely have to wait until Paramount’s deal to acquire WBD closes before signing a new deal.

“As in an ongoing relationship, we always talk about the future, and from our perspective, it’s not in the context of the NFL,” NHL spokesman Jon Weinstein said.

Murdoch said last month that Fox should “rebalance” its sports portfolio once it pays the NFL.

Slope CEO Mark Lazarus said earlier this month that he was “prepared for the sports landscape to change” given the NFL’s exorbitant cost. That could allow Versant, which owns USA Network and other cable channels, to buy rights to sports like the NHL or MLB “that we might not have been involved in otherwise,” he said.

Disclosure: Versant is the parent company of CNBC.