The U.S. housing market has yet to regain strength by 2026, but real estate agents say there has been a real shift toward a more balanced market, according to CNBC’s quarterly housing market survey.
Mortgage rates haven’t moved much in the final quarter of 2025, but house prices have been falling steadily. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell sharply in the third quarter, but then stabilized between 6.2% and 6.4% during the fourth quarter, leaving some buyers on the sidelines with no incentive to take the plunge.
Today, the first signs of a possible intensification of activity are appearing.
“The buyers I’ve seen are buying because of life circumstances, whether it’s having a baby, moving for a job, retiring or downsizing,” said Ashley Rummage, a real estate agent in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Among real estate agents surveyed by CNBC in the fourth quarter, 37.5% said it was a balanced market, rather than a buyer’s market they said they saw in the third quarter. That figure is up from 30% in the third quarter and is likely because consumers have lost confidence in the economy as job losses have mounted.
“People moving and the momentum we had was definitely slowed, much, much less by interest rates than by intrinsic factors, the cost of living,” said Heather Dell, a real estate agent in Detroit. “Home insurance, car insurance, utilities and medical insurance are the top objections I hear when a buyer talks about buying.”
The CNBC Housing Market Survey is a national survey of randomly selected real estate agents across the United States. Responses to the fourth quarter survey were collected between December 10 and 17. This quarter, 72 agents shared their perspectives.
While the majority of agents said it’s still a buyer’s market due to falling prices and increasing inventory for sale, some agents noted that their buyers and sellers still have very different expectations.
“Buyers tend to think the market is like 2008 and sellers tend to think the market is closer to 2021, 2022, and those are diametrically opposed markets and mindsets,” said John Fragola, a real estate agent in Charleston, South Carolina.
Of course, 2008 was the start of the subprime mortgage crisis, which led to the Great Recession and the housing crash, when the market was flooded with distressed housing, putting all the power in the hands of buyers. Meanwhile, 2021 arrived shortly after the start of the Covid pandemic, when there was a buying frenzy and stocks fell to record lows, putting all the power in the hands of sellers.
Market equilibrium is probably being achieved thanks to falling prices.
More agents, 92%, said at least one seller reduced their price in the fourth quarter, compared to 89% in the previous quarter, according to the CNBC survey. Nearly half of those surveyed said the majority of their sellers were cutting prices.
“The dealerships have multiplied, especially in my market,” Rummage said. “At the start of the year, unfortunately, many sellers were still stuck in the 2021 mindset, but as the year progressed and their listings stagnated, they had to get used to the fact that they were likely going to have to offer concessions to complete the transaction.
Even though prices are falling, they remain historically high, but buyers seem to be getting used to it and seeing it as the new normal.
When asked how affordability impacted their buyers, agents responded that fewer buyers left the market in the fourth quarter than in the prior period, and fewer purchases were delayed. They also made fewer compromises on things like home size, features and location.
However, the price drop is not very palatable to sellers, and more agents reported having to write off properties than in the third quarter.
“Personally, I’ve had clients tell me, ‘Let’s take a break, let’s put the brakes on here and we’ll come back to the spring market when there are more buyers,’” Fragola said.
As for the new year, despite a slow end to 2025, 67.8% of agents said they expected sales to improve in the first quarter. 77% of agents said they expect 2026 to be better than last year.
There is now more inventory on the market and some agents said they believe consumers are getting used to the current economic conditions.
“I think a lot of people are feeling a little more comfortable with the unknown,” Rummage said. “The feeling has shifted from anxiety to cautious optimism.”