The dynamics of American elections are changing rapidly. The old idea that Democrats only showed up to vote in presidential elections has been disproved in recent years by the presence of more Democrats in midterm, off-year and special elections.
Republicans can no longer participate in elections that many voters once ignored, believing they had a built-in advantage.
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The second presidency of Donald Trump was an accelerator of this change in behavior. Voters unhappy with the Trump presidency are showing up to vote at every opportunity. Turnout was high in the 2025 elections, which for the vast majority of the country featured municipal elections.
Trump’s unpopularity is so pervasive and saturated that it far exceeds what experts thought they knew about voting patterns and turnout.
New data from Marist Survey shows voters are champing at the bit to end the Trump presidency.
Let’s look at the Trump factor first:
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President Trump’s job approval rating among Americans is 39%, down slightly from 41% in September. 56% of Americans disapprove of the job done by the president in power. This compares to 53% previously.
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26% of Americans say they strongly approve of President Trump’s job, while 48% strongly disapprove.
Many presidents have been unpopular, but the intensity of Trump’s unpopularity in the first year of his second term is historic. The urgency felt by the American people is driven by dislike of Trump, and rejection of Trump is fueled by a dominant issue that is not the Epstein files.
The numbers are much worse for Trump and the Republicans, as you’ll see below.