The Chinese nuclear arsenal increases more quickly than any other country, by around 100 new warheads per year, according to a research group.
China could also have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as Russia or the United States at the turn of the decade.
These results are included in the annual evaluation of International Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) of armaments, disarmament and international security, published on Monday.
Sipri concludes that almost all nine nuclear weapons – the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – continued intensive nuclear modernization programs in 2024, improving existing weapons and adding new versions.
It highlights the rapid growth of the Chinese arsenal, now estimated at at least 600 nuclear warheads. He indicates that he has increased by around 100 new warheads per year since 2023.
In January 2025, China had finished or was about to complete about 350 intercontinental ballistic missile silos (ICBM) in three large desert fields in the north of the country and three mountainous areas in the east, known as Siri.
“Depending on how he decides to structure his forces, China could potentially have at least as much ICBM as Russia or the United States at the turn of the decade,” said the report.
In December, the US Defense Ministry offered a similar estimate of the number of Chinese birds, tripling its estimated arsenal in just four years.
However, Sipri adds that even if China reaches the maximum planned number of 1,500 warheads by 2035, this will only amount to approximately a third of each of the current Russian and American nuclear stocks.
Russia and the United States have around 90% of all nuclear weapons together. The two have about 1,700 warheads deployed and more than each storage.
On Monday, the spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Guo Jiakun, was asked about the Sipri report, and said that China was following a nuclear strategy that focuses on self-defense.
“China always retains its nuclear capacities at a minimum level required by national security and never engages in the arms race,” Guo told a Beijing press briefing, adding that China has a policy of “ without use ” on nuclear weapons.
Sipri estimates that North Korea has assembled around 50 warheads and has enough fissile materials to produce up to 40 additional warheads and accelerates the production of new fissile materials.
He says that North Korea “continues to prioritize its military nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy”, also noting that leader Kim Jun Jun in November called for his “unlimited” expansion.
Edited by Mat Pennington.