A container truck and shipping containers are presented at the port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, United States, on May 13, 2025.
Mike Blake | Reuters
Even retail managers are optimistic about the “tacos trade”.
After weeks of travel policy, early agreements and singular challenges, some retail leaders are starting to feel more optimistic about President Donald Trump's reciprocal rates, according to a new investigation by the Alixpartners consulting firm.
The survey, which questioned the leaders of brands, retailers and other consumer companies on June 1, revealed that most respondents expect the president to return these steep tasks of the European Union, Vietnam, India and Mexico after a 90 -day break. Mexico was not part of Trump's reciprocal rates but has faced new administration samples, which also expects the respondents to remain the same.
Imports from these regions and dozens of other countries are faced with an obligation of 10% while the Trump administration tries a hammer of trade agreements with individual nations. Most respondents of the survey expect these 10% prices to remain in force – rather than the much higher rates originally on April 2 – once these negotiations are complete.
For example, 53% of retail managers expect rates on goods imported from Vietnam to remain at 10% after the end of the delay, instead of the dreaded tax of 46% “reciprocal” which could beat businesses like Nike which import a significant part of the country's goods.
For many retailers, Vietnam has become the next manufacturing border outside of China. The negotiations between the country of Southeast Asia and the DC of Washington have been closely monitored and the subject of the dismay of many leaders in recent months.
In the weeks following Trump's announcement, then reduced “reciprocal” steep prices, many leaders feared to end up being greater than 10%, said Sonia Lapinsky, partner and director general at Alixparters, citing conversations that the company had with leaders.
But as June approaches, the atmosphere began to change, according to the results of the survey.
On the one hand, the United States and China finally came to the negotiating table. A few days before the investigation, the American Court of International Trade also judged that Trump did not have the power to impose the prices of April 2. Although this decision is pending waiting for the Trump administration, the developments told retailers that prices could be completely rebuilt, according to the results of the survey.
“”[Trump] shows that he wants to conclude an agreement, and it has taken a lot of effort to go and do it at this stage. If we remember, even trying to get a meeting was very difficult for both parties, and yet they made progress, “said Lapinsky.” I think that the fact that there has been a repression that has since been retracted to allow the prices to pass, I think that some people feel more confident who, potentially, could reproduce. “”
In the days which followed the realization of the survey, Trump concluded a preliminary agreement with China to maintain a new price of 30% on imports, after having reduced a previous right of 145%.
This is another sign for retail leaders that prices on the rest of the world could remain at 10%, and shows that their opinions can line up with the so -called Taco trade – a criticism invented by a columnist of the Financial Times which represents “Trump Always Chickens”.
The term describes a past scheme where Trump announces high prices, then stops later or lightened them after the markets react negatively.
Asked about the mandate last month, Trump said that it was not a few steps.
“This is called negotiation,” he said.
However, Lapinsky warned that optimism among retailers could be premature.
“We can see that China could be at the status quo, because there has been such a discussion on the conclusion of transactions and the priorities of the two countries so that something works possibly, but these other countries do not have the leverage of China,” said Lapinsky.
“Whether they may be able to negotiate to keep a similar agreement or not for me remains very unknown,” she continued. “I did not expect many retailers to say that they thought he was going to remain status quo.”
Although more and more respondents expect that the 10% rate remains in place in most regions outside of China, responsible companies provide both, said Lapinsky.
For example, 46%of respondents expect the prices on imports from India to remain 10%, instead of the levy offered at 26%. But 29% of respondents also plan the two scenarios, where the tasks remain the same or find themselves higher.