The 25% Trump car rates are in effect. What investors must know

DETROIT – The 25% prices of President Donald Trump on imported vehicles in the United States took effect, but the impacts of new samples from investors and the world automotive industry are taking place during the months, even years, to come.

The 25% tariffs are on a vehicle not assembled in the United States, which S&P Global Mobility reports represented 46% of approximately 16 million vehicles sold at the national year. The White House said it also planned to place prices on certain automotive parts such as engines and transmissions, but these should take effect no later than May 3.

Wall Street analysts and investors have been lowered on prices, which, according to some, could decimate the benefits of the company and drive the automotive industry in a recession.

“A 25% on automotive imports for four to six weeks probably would have a scary effect on the entire sector as [automakers] Need to struggle with a significant impact on the results, “said Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska, in a recent note to investors.

Itay Michaeli of TD Cowen described investors’ prices as “near the worst result compared to recent expectations”, while Dan Levy de Barclays said “that there are no” winners “in absolute terms – only the relative winners”.

Trump admitted that there could be “pain” initially with the prices, but the president said that he thought that the actions would strengthen US long-term jobs and lead more than $ 100 billion in new annual income in the United States

The car manufacturers were lobbying for vehicles and parts that comply with Trump’s United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, but so far, there has been no exemptions for vehicles.

He could end up being warnings for car parts that are not yet finalized, but car actions will probably remain volatile, warned Wall Street analysts.

While the impacts of the prices continue to take place, investors should know which companies should be the most at risk, which vehicles will be assigned and how much the levies should affect the profits.

In simple terms, no vehicle is completely obtained and produced at the national level.

Even if vehicles are produced in the United States – which means that the final assembly takes place in the country – the tens of thousands of parts for new cars and trucks come from a global supply chain.

“We point out that the concept of an American car manufacturer with parts of the United States is a fictitious story that does not exist and would take years to make this concept a reality,” said Dan Ives, Wedbush analyst in an investor note on Wednesday.

For example, Ford Motor The F-150 is exclusively assembled in the United States, but has around 2,700 main bailiffs, which exclude many small pieces, according to Caresoft, an analysis and engineering advice company. These parts come from at least 24 different countries, said Caresoft.

In the end, the deployment of prices on automotive parts will be essential and could potentially bring a certain relief to car manufacturers, according to their supply chain network.

The documents which are currently in accordance with the USMCA trade agreement will be without a price, but only until the Secretary of Commerce and Customs and the Protection of the Frontiers establish processes to impose samples on non -American content.

Car manufacturers under the USMCA should also have the possibility of having American content equivalent to a reduction in their price calculation, according to the White House.

S&P Global Mobility Reports Volvo, Mazda, Volkswagen And Hyundai engine (including Genesis and Kia brands) are most at risk from the point of view of the vehicle, because at least 60% of their respective American sales were imported from outside the United States in 2024.

Ford, General Motors,, Toyota Motor,, Honda Motor and Chrysler Parent Stelllantis has produced the most vehicles in the United States, according to S&P Global Mobility. These five car manufacturers represented 67% of the American production of passenger vehicles in 2024.

But Bernstein estimates that 57% of the content of value in vehicles assembled in the United States is imported, which means that companies such as Ford – 1 American producer of cars and trucks – should always be affected significantly by prices.

Among the car manufacturers of Detroit, Bernstein reports that GM faces the highest exposure to prices, driven by its income share of more than 80% in North America, 48% of vehicle import rates and less than 40% of American parts in interior constructions.

Bernstein estimated that GM’s profits before interest and taxes could drop by 79% following prices, a drop of 81% of profit per share and a blow of $ 4.1 billion on available cash flows.

This is compared to the estimates of Bernstein for Ford at a blow of 16.5% at the EBIT, a 23% drop in BPA and 36% of the available cash flows.

Stellantis, estimates Bernstein, is the least affected, with only 40% of the world’s content in the content of local parts of 56%, which resulted in an impact of EBIT of around 1 billion dollars, a drop in net income of 8.75% and a blow of approximately $ 540 million for free cash flows.

Excluding potential parts on parts, leader in American electric vehicles Tesla as well as EV startups Rivian Automotive And Lucid group are much better positioned. All their vehicles sold in the United States have a final assembly in the country.

“Tesla is the clear structural winner: a localized and strong market share, better isolated from commercial risk. For everyone, it is a reset of margin and a real trail on the power of short -term profits,” said Roeska de Bernstein.

American automotive sales in the first quarter came far above the expectations of the industry, while consumers took place to buy new vehicles before the prices that take effect, which expects to train higher prices of vehicles.

“In addition to the increase in vehicle import costs, costs will increase for automotive manufacturing in the United States and consumer costs for vehicles will increase,” said S&P Global Mobility in a price report last week.

S&P expects sales of light vehicles for us to migrate between 14.5 million and 15 million units per year in the coming years, if the prices remain in force. This is compared to around 16 million vehicles sold in 2024.

Entry -level and cheaper vehicles may be reduced or see price increases, according to Wall Street and industry analysts. Indeed

For example, GM imported more than 400,000 entry -level multisestos for its Buick and Chevrolet brands last year from South Korea, without a price. The company presented vehicles as the ultimate in the profitable growth of the automaker in entry -level vehicles at the lower margin.

The other entry-level or more affordable vehicles that should be tariff include the Toyota Rav4 and Honda CR-V in Canada as well as the Ford Maverick, Ford Bronco Sport and Chevrolet Equinox in Mexico.

Bank of America estimates that new vehicle prices – which currently manage an average of $ 48,000 – could increase up to $ 10,000 if car manufacturers transmit prices to consumer -affected vehicles.

Car manufacturers have been largely silent on the quantity that they intend to increase the prices of vehicles due to new car rates, as well as additional samples from parts, aluminum and steel – if they increase prices.

“We continue to assess all the scenarios,” the CEO of Hyundai Motor North America Randy Parker said on Tuesday pricing increases on Tuesday. “But what I would say to our customers is that, like all things in life, tomorrow is never guaranteed. And if you are interested in buying a car, this is the perfect time to buy a car, because to this day, we have not been [risen] price. “”