Yesterday, the Myanmar military junta declared a unilateral ceasefire in the country’s civil war to facilitate rescue efforts after the devastating earthquake last week, while the number of deaths for the disaster exceeded 3,000.
According to a declaration from the army reported by the state broadcaster MRTV, the truce will take place until April 22 and aims to help the hundreds of thousands of people affected by the earthquake on Friday. During this period, resistance groups must refrain from attacking the state or grouping their forces, if not the soldiers will take “necessary” measures, added the press release.
The junta’s announcement of a humanitarian ceasefire follows similar announcements by the government of the national opposition unity and a powerful alliance of ethnic armed groups in the days that followed the earthquake of March 28. The eminent ethnic armed group’s army of Kachin has since followed suit.
The 7.7 gross earthquake caused chaos and destruction through the central dry area of Myanmar, destroying bridges, roads and thousands of buildings. The destruction is particularly serious in the sagaing region – the epicenter of the earthquake – and in the regions of Mandalay, Magwe and Noytyidaw nearby. Serious impacts have also been reported in the Bago region and in certain parts of Shan’s state.
The official assessment of the junta of the earthquake in Myanmar increased yesterday to 3,003, while 4,500 other people were injured, media reported. Other estimates, including predictive modeling of the United States Geological Survey, suggest figures from much higher victims, although the real scale of human loss may not become clear for weeks. In many regions of the disaster area, hundreds of people slept in the streets or other areas outside, either because they have lost their house or are afraid of structural damage and other aftershocks.
It remains to be seen how serious the junta is about the ceasefire. After the Three Brotherhood Alliance of Ethnic Armed Group announced on Tuesday a “humanitarian break” of a month, General de Junta, General Aung Hlaing, who inspected damage to the Myanmar Parliament in Naycyidaw yesterday, initially excluded a similar sale fire. The fact that he has changed his mind so quickly suggests the disastrous situation in the face of the Myanmar Armed Forces and the fact that they cannot hold defensive positions simultaneously and undertake efforts to recover earthquakes.
He can also represent an answer to the fact that in many regions of the catastrophic area, the army’s response has been partial and dull.
“With a minimum research and rescue capacity available in Myanmar, people dug rubble to their hands in search of survivors,” said Richard Horse, the main crisis group in a statement, yesterday. “The army, which would normally be at the forefront of such efforts – but which has violently repressed the dissent since the coup d’etat of February 2021 and is largely insulting – was mainly absent from the photo.”
At the same time, the history of the army suggest some reasons for skepticism. The junta has already been widely sentenced to having pursued her air attacks against areas held by resistance groups, some of which that the earthquake has seriously affected.
Amnesty International reported earlier this week “that the army continued its campaign of deadly air strikes, adding to the tension of recovery efforts and the fear and anxiety of the survivors”. Ye Myo Hein of the United States Institute for Peace said on Tuesday that “air strikes are continuing daily across the country” and that there have been at least 16 attacks until now in the four days of the earthquake, targeting areas of resistance inside and beyond the disaster area.
Given the existential threat confronted with the army, which has already lost large quantities of territory to the loose coalition of armies and ethnic resistance groups between it, it will remain tempting to take advantage of current chaos to consolidate its military position.
In any case, in an indication of his priorities, Min Aung Hlaing had to move to Bangkok, where he would attend a regional summit tomorrow. It was not clear if he would attend, given the situation in Myanmar, but his presence at the Bimstec meeting, a regional group which includes India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal and Thailand, was confirmed yesterday by a spokesman for the Ministry of Thai Affairs.
“The head of Myanmar joins the summit day,” said the spokesperson. “Although we have not received their route, but we have received confirmation from its attendance.”