In less than a week, China has launched a series of naval exercises in the South Pacific, the Gulf of Tonkin and off the southwest coast of Taiwan. These maneuvers have demonstrated the capacity of the Navy of the Popular Liberation Army (Plan) to operate simultaneously in several theaters in Asia-Pacific. What are the reasons behind these maneuvers and what do they reveal about the potential future of Beijing in the region?
What happened
At 9:30 a.m. on February 21, a plan made up of the frigate Hengyang, the Zunyi cruiser and the Weishanhu replenishment ship began a naval exercise in international waters, 346 sea miles from Eden, Australia. The flotilla has not complied with international standards in Advanced opinionAnd the Australian military leaders were not aware of the exercises up to 30 minutes later, when a commercial airline driver alerted Airservices Australia. Unexpected exercise forced 49 flights to redirect. The next day, the flotilla plan made live shooting exercisesprovoking other hijackings until February 24. Before this incident, China had never organized military exercises in the Tasman Sea.
On February 24, China announced the start of naval exercises in live shooting southeast of Beihai, on the Chinese side of the Gulf of Tonkinlasted until February 27. However, few details are available regarding this event.
At 8:42 a.m. on February 26, the Taiwanese army detected 32 PLA planes and seven warships carrying out 40 nabin miles from the counties of Kaohsiung and Pingtung, housing military bases and ports. There is Contradictory reports On the question of whether live fire was used, but China has given no notice concerning the start of the exercises. At the same time, 13 plans of war planes and seven naval ships operated in other regions of Taiwan.
In addition to the naval exercises, from February 24, PLA Habited and unmanned plane Discovered outings above the Eastern China Sea and the Philippine Sea, crossing Japanese airspace and causing the japping Japanese fighter planes in response.
Give meaning to exercises
Compared to previous Chinese naval exercises, which generally focused on an area, successive maneuvers through several locations through the Asia-Pacific region deserve attention.
The exercises of the Gulf of Tonkin and the southwest coast of Taiwan seem to be expressions of dissatisfaction with recent actions taken by regional governments. On February 21, Vietnam published a card defining its Basic complaints In the Gulf of Tonkin, a late response to the announcement by China of its reference in 2024 that aroused criticism from Hanoi. Although China and Vietnam were not important contradictions in the Gulf of Tonkin, their wider dispute over the Southern China Sea remains unresolved. The declaration of the basic line of the Gulf of Tonkin of Vietnam probably sparked Beijing’s decision to carry out live shooting exercises, signaling its determination to defend its maritime interests.
Taiwan has long confronted Chinese tactics in the “gray area”, in which the non -military assets of China work to disturb and undermine the self -defense capacities of Taiwan without crossing the war threshold. In recent years, Taiwan has experienced many cases of telecommunications cable dysfunctions below, 2025 being the most severe year to date. The Taiwanese authorities suspect that the commercial ships linked to China are responsible, aimed at harm Taiwan’s critical infrastructure. On February 25, the Taiwanese coastal guard seized the cargo cargo recorded by the Togolese Hongtaiwhich is suspected of cutting the submarine cable connecting Taiwan and the Penghu Islands. The exercises of the APL the next day were probably an intimidation tactic, signaling the dissatisfaction of Beijing in the face of the seizure of Hongtai.
However, naval exercises near Australia and New Zealand did not respond to any specific recent conflict. Although China’s relations with these countries have been tense, no major incidents preceded the exercises. Beyond functioning as expressions of dissatisfaction on regional friction, these exercises are used to: acquire operational experience, demonstrating Chinese military capacities, assert domination in the regionand act as survey operations.
The plan has produced substantial growth in recent years. China now has the largest navy in the world and its shipyards remain very productive. In addition, the firepower of the plan quickly approaches that of the American navy. In Asia-Pacific, the plan outperforms other navies in quality and quantity. By conducting naval exercises coordinated in the region, China seeks to improve its naval preparation and to present its expansion capacity to competitors, in particular Australia and New Zealand, which could arrive using Taiwan in a future conflict.
In addition, at a time when US national and foreign policies are disarray, China wants to affirm the domination of the American allies in the region – notably Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand. In recent years, Vietnam has sought to strengthen relations with the United States also to compensate for the growing influence of China. By performing exercises near the waters of these nations, China is bending its military muscles and tests the resilience of American partnerships – especially since the Trump administration destabilizes the security structures led by the United States.
Finally, these coordinated naval exercises serve as survey operations to test the reaction and resolution of the United States and its regional partners. As I have it Previously presentedThe Trump administration’s flip-flop on Ukraine threatens Taiwan’s security, which has aroused an increase in Chinese survey operations to examine the American engagement and the strength of its allies. While the United States continues to present fragile support to traditional allies, China can assess the feasibility of the use of force to reshape the balance of powers in Asia-Pacific thanks to these survey operations.
February 26, Trump refused to comment As for whether the United States would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack and openly congratulated Xi Jinping. Such statements will embrace Beijing and generate other APL survey operations when she is preparing for a potential Taiwan invasion.
What is the next step
Geopolitical risks cannot degenerate while the Trump administration actively dismantles American federal agencies, narrows its defense budget and alienates allies around the world. On the European front, the United States has turned against its NATO allies and slowed down with Moscow on Kyiv – even refuse to recognize The obvious fact of Russian aggression against Ukraine. In addition, Washington’s neocolonial requests for Ukraine’s resources caused bitter disappointment in European capitals, Expanding the transatlantic fault.
At the other end of the Eurasia, in addition to threatening impose prices On its partners in East Asia, the United States has not yet described clear political priorities, leaving the uncertain regional allies of Washington’s long-term engagement. Judging by Trump’s declarations and behavior, American relations with Asian allies will probably become very transactional and the abandonment of certain allies is not out of the question.
In this context, greater instability in Asia-Pacific is expected. Other Chinese military exercises similar to those carried out recently will take place, both to demonstrate the probe force and adversaries. These exercises will continue until Chinese leaders determine that a timely moment has arrived to reshape the status quo in Asia-Pacific.