The midterm election map is starting to look brutal for Republicans. Virginia voters approved a map that could net Democrats four additional House seats. Florida Republicans have doubts about further manipulation of the state’s maps, and that’s not even the worst midterm election news of the week for the Republican Party.
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A new poll from the Cook Political Report shows that even House districts that Trump won by ten points are at risk of slipping into Democratic hands.
The survey found:
In an exclusive poll of districts classified by The Cook Political Report as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat — districts that President Donald Trump won by an average of two points in 2024 — Democrats hold a six-point advantage on the wildcard Congressional ballot, 50% to 44%.
If this advantage were to continue in November, any district Trump wins by 10 points or less could be at significant risk of falling into Democratic hands.
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Voters are not buying Trump and many Republicans’ argument that former President Joe Biden is to blame for the weak economy. By a nine-point margin, or 50% to 41%, voters in these competitive districts blame Trump and Republicans for the high cost of living. A significant majority – 57% – think Trump and Republicans have “failed to cut costs as they promised,” compared to 43% who think Trump “inherited soaring inflation.”
Blaming Joe Biden doesn’t work. Voters blame Trump and Republicans for the high cost of living and for failing to keep their promise to cut costs.
A key group of voters is why Republicans are in this brutal position.