On April 14, the IHS Janes Defense website reported That Russia requests the authorization of Indonesia to park several long -range planes of the Russian aerospace forces (VKS) at the base of the Air Force Manuhua on the island of Biak in the Indonesian province of Western Papua. The news broke out just when the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov Arrived in Indonesia On April 15 during an official visit, where he was welcomed by President Prabowo suffered.
Unsurprisingly, the report was a shock for the Australian government, which has slowed down with Kyiv in the Russian-Ukraine war. Western countries – Including Australia – imposed sanctions On VKS, the air and spatial branch of the Russian armed forces, for its participation in the invasion of Ukraine. Would have been insured His Australian counterpart that there is no prospect of Russian military planes operating in Indonesia.
Other countries in Southeast Asia were probably less surprised but more intrigued by the report. Certain neighbors of Indonesia have historical links with Russia, and several states of Southeast Asia have recently joined (Indonesia) or become partners (Malaysia and Thailand) of the Brics group, of which Russia is a founding member. With the exception of Singapore, who imposed sanctions on Russia, and the Philippines, which was alarmed by the apparent presence of a Russian submarine In its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in December, the countries of Southeast Asia maintained normal relations with Moscow despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
As a regional block, the Association of Nations of Southeast Asia (ASEAN) has normal diplomatic relations with Moscow. His most recent major commitment was the 23rd Asean-Russia Joint cooperation committee On April 11, where the two parties discussed the strengthening of the strategic partnership of Asean-Russia. More specifically on military issues, Russia continues to be a member of the Réunion of the Ministers of Defense of Anase Plus, in which it is currently co -presidents The working group of experts on the action of the humanitarian mine with Laos for the period 2024-2027.
Strategically, Russia has long had interests in Indo-Pacific, including in Southeast Asia. And these interests are largely earlier and extend beyond the strategic calculations that Moscow has made in response to Western sanctions.
In short, Russia considers itself a great power with the same geopolitical position as China and the United States. Given the importance of the Indo-Pacific theater and the fact that Russia has a presence in the north of the Pacific, it is expected that Russia wishes to project a certain magnitude of the diplomatic and military presence in the region, even if this is more symbolic and less substantial than the Americans and the Chinese.
For example, Russia and Anase carried out their first naval exercise (Arnex) in December 2021 in the Malacca Strait after the ASEAN organized similar exercises with the WE. in 2019 and with China in 2018. Russia and Indonesia then held their first bilateral naval exercise in the Java Sea in November 2024.
The calendar of the alleged request from Russia to the staging of military aircraft in Western Papua seems appropriate, because Moscow could have built more political good will with Jakarta. In January of this year, Indonesia officially became the first ASEAN country to join Brics. The visit of the head of security of Russia Sergei Shoigu In Indonesia in February strengthened bilateral relations in defense cooperation in particular, following Prabowo meeting With Russian President Vladimir Putin in July 2024.
Indonesia wishes to pursue narrower economic ties with Russia. He is particularly eager to attract Russian investments in Strategic sectors like energy and mining and in the sovereign heritage fund of Indonesia Danantara. The right links with Moscow also seem to be part of Prabowo’s strategy to make Indonesia an active power, although not aligned, and as a way to balance relations with China and the United States, because competition between the great powers is intensifying. Timing is fortuitous for Indonesia since the Trump administration also seems passionate To improve relations with Russia.
Given these developments, Russia might think that time is ripe for it to improve its presence in the region by taking advantage of its historical relations with Indonesia and the goodwill that has been generated by recent diplomatic commitments.
Russia has long been interested in Papua. In 2017, it was reported that Russian strategic bombers went to the basis of Manuhua’s Air Force for a military exercise with Indonesia. Western Papuan could be a useful node for Russia’s information collection in Indo-Pacific. The island of Biak is approximately 2,000 kilometers from the American territory of Guam and approximately 2,500 kilometers from the Southern China Sea, where China has become more and more assertive. It is also next to Papua New Guinea, which Australia, China and the United States consider strategically importantand about 1,300 kilometers from Darwin, Australia, which hosts a US Marine Rotation Force.
Moreover, as far as 2006Russia has formulated plans to cooperate with Indonesia to build a satellite launch site in Biak Island. This plan results from the “declaration of the framework of friendship and relations of partnership between the Republic of Indonesia and the Federation of Russia in the 21st century” that was signed in 2003.
Western Papuan is well suited to space activity: it is an area far from occupied commercial flight routes near the equator, where satellite launches require less rocket fuel. Russia may still house this plan since the war in Ukraine and China-US has amplified the importance of satellite technologies.
What is perhaps less certain is whether Russia’s military presence in Western Papua, if ever, could be useful in Prabowo plans to stimulate security forces in the region. The Indonesian president may perceive Western interference By helping the separatist movement in the west of Papua as a real threat. On this front, it was the Russian (Soviet) forces that helped Indonesia during Trikora operation In 1961, in which he torn the control of Western Papua from the Dutch.
Nevertheless, the Australian government and other countries in Southeast Asia should feel some insurance after the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated firmly On April 16, that “Indonesia never gave any country the authorization to build or have a military base on its territory.”
However, this may not provide the complete closure that Indonesia wants. Australian politicians and civil servants distrust of Russia probably believe that the Russian army will continue to try to conclude an agreement with Indonesia. And American forces in Indo-Pacific will monitor how this development is part of growth Chinese-Russian-North trianglethat they perceive as a threat of security for the region.