A United Airlines plane approaches the runway at Denver International Airport, March 23, 2026.
Al Drago | Getty Images
United Airlines on Tuesday slashed its 2026 profit outlook as it grapples with a surge in jet fuel prices due to the war in the Middle East.
United said it could earn between $7 and $11 per share on an adjusted basis this year, down from its previous forecast of between $12 and $14 per share issued in January, more than a month before the United States and Israel attacked Iran.
The carrier, like others, is reducing some of its scheduled flights this year to reduce costs. As a result, Wall Street had already adjusted its expectations for the year. Analysts surveyed by LSEG expected United’s full-year adjusted profit to be $9.58 per share.
For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings of between $1 and $2 per share. Analysts were expecting $2.08 per share for the quarter. United estimated fuel prices would average $4.30 per gallon in the second quarter.
The carrier said it expects its revenue to cover between 40% and 50% of the fuel price increase in the second quarter, up to 80% in the third and between 85% and 100% by the end of the year.
United reiterated that it is changing its schedules to accommodate rising fuel prices, with capacity expected to be flat in the second half or even increase about 2% for the year. It increased by 3.4% in the first quarter.
Here’s what United Airlines reported for the quarter ended March 31, compared to what Wall Street expected, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.19 adjusted vs. $1.07 expected
- Income: $14.61 billion versus $14.37 billion expected
Revenues and profits on the rise
Overall revenue rose more than 10 percent to $14.61 billion from $13.21 billion a year earlier.
For the first quarter, United’s net income rose 80% to $699 million, or 2.14 cents per share, from net income of $387 million, or 1.16 cents per share, a year earlier. After adjusting for one-time items, United posted earnings per share of $1.19 per share.
Unit revenue increased across all reported segments, including for U.S. domestic flights, where it increased 7.9% to $7.9 billion from a year earlier, reflecting strong pricing power in the quarter.
“These are results our employees can be proud of, and they demonstrate the resilience of our long-term strategy, even in the face of escalating fuel costs,” CEO Scott Kirby said in an earnings release.
In the United States, jet fuel cost $3.51 a gallon on Monday, down from a high of $4.78 on April 2, but well above the $2.39 on February 27, the day before the first attacks on Iran, according to prices assessed by Platts.
Airline executives said demand remained robust even as they raised fares and checked baggage fees as they pass on higher fuel prices to customers. The industry has become more dependent on travelers who are willing to pay more for larger flights and seats, and who are less affected by price increases.
Alaska Airlines withdrew its forecast for 2026 on Monday due to rising fuel prices. Fares were raised by about $25, CEO Ben Minicucci told analysts Tuesday.
Merger ambitions?
United CEO Scott Kirby will likely face questions Wednesday during the company’s earnings conference call at 10:30 a.m. ET about its ambitions to merge with another airline.
Kirby has floated a potential merger with American airlines to a Trump administration official earlier this year, according to a person familiar with the matter, but President Donald Trump has come out against the idea.
“I don’t like them to merge,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday morning. He said he’d like someone to buy the struggling discount carrier Spirit, but he also suggested the federal government could “help that one out.”
American also rejected the idea of a merger with United last week.