As poll numbers continue to fall, Donald Trump continues to look for ways to avoid what seems increasingly inevitable. Polls show that Democrats are in a good position to win back the majority in the House, and they are also in a better position to overthrow the Senate.
Cook Political Report poll tracking reveals how dire the situation has become for Trump and, by extension, for Republicans running for election or re-election in November:
Trump’s overall approval rating among voters now stands at 41.0%, down from 47.3% when CPR began reporting an overall polling average nearly a year ago. As of March 2025, his net approval stood at almost -1.6% (47.3% approval vs. 48.9% disapproval). This net rating now stands at -15.3%, a drop of almost 14 points.
Moreover, the decline in the president’s overall approval is particularly sharp among the blocks of infrequent voters who made up his 2024 coalition and who will be key to the Republican Party’s midterm hopes: young people (down a net 24.5% since last March), Latinos (down a net 16.0%), and independents (down a net 23.7%). In fact, less than 30% of independent voters now like the president for his performance.
The Cook metric uses 21 different metrics that have all been vetted for their solid methodology, and what Cook found is that Trump has been on a steady decline since March 2025.
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The president pressured the Senate to pass a massive national voter suppression law, but Majority Leader John Thune delivered bad news to Trump on Tuesday.
Read how it breaks down for Trump below.