October 4 was a historic day for Japanese politics. Takaichi Sanae, Japan’s former Minister of Economic Security, has won the presidential election for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), becoming the first female president in the party’s history. She is now set to make history again and become Japan’s first female prime minister when the Diet resumes, shattering the ultimate glass ceiling in Japanese politics.
His victory on Saturday defied all expectations. Japanese analysts across the political spectrum expected Koizumi Shinjiro, the eloquent and charismatic son of popular former Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro, to succeed Ishiba Shigeru. His victory would have been a landmark in itself, as he would have been the youngest leader in the history of the PLD. However, Takaichi’s expected rise as Japan’s first female prime minister has a different scale.
As expected, many post-match analyzes highlighted the headwinds Takaichi will face. Above all, it is a question of whether she can add another partner to the LDP’s current ruling coalition before the vote to select Japan’s next prime minister which is expected to take place in mid-October. Currently, there are two obvious candidates as an additional coalition partner: Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP). Each party has policies in which it aligns more with the LDP – and other policies in which it is father.
Additionally, Takaichi must consider the comfort level of Komeito, the LDP’s longtime coalition partner, who is already bracing for the prospect of pushing the LDP further to the right due to her reputation as a conservative politician.
Others suggest that Takaichi herself will be overshadowed by the influence of former Prime Minister Aso Taro, who played a role central role by rallying support for him among LDP politicians in his runoff against Koizumi. Before the vote, many veteran political observers in Japan pointed out that the October 4 elections were a “proxy war” between three former LDP prime ministers nicknamed “kingmakers» – Suga Yoshihide, Kishida Fumio and Aso – who are fighting to maintain their political influence within the party.
After Takaichi’s victory, analysts believe that she will have to “reward” Aso and his protégés by appointing them to high positions within the leadership of the LDP and/or the government. His first moves regarding LDP leadership positions – the appointment of Suzuki Shunichi, Aso’s brother-in-law, as LDP secretary general, in particular – already indicate the internal LDP political dynamics that Takaichi will have to manage.
Of course, Takaichi will have no shortage of political challenges once she becomes prime minister. During her first press conference as president of the PLD, she noted that his top priority is to fight inflation and reduce taxes for the Japanese. However, as important as these economic issues are, they are only the beginning of a long list of domestic and foreign policy challenges that Takaichi will face.
There are pressing domestic political issues – notably the question of voter confidence in the LDP, which has been reduced to minority status in both houses of the Diet, as well as inflation and immigration. Then there are foreign policy challenges such as worsening threats from China and North Korea, maintaining positive momentum in relations between Japan and South Korea, and the looming possibility that Takaichi will have to confront U.S. President Donald Trump just two weeks after serving as prime minister. It almost seems that, as some media outlets have already pointed out, becoming Japan’s first female prime minister is the “easy part» for Takaichi.
Takaichi must lead the LDP and, if elected, Japan in a political landscape full of mines. The biggest challenge ahead is whether she can fight the urge to prove her conservative reputation.
Ironically, Takaichi has not always been known for her conservative political views. Although she had always been a strong advocate of a strong alliance between Japan and the United States, her reputation as a conservative politician deepened after she joined the LDP in 1996, several years after she was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1993 and joined Seiwa-Kai, the conservative group within the LDP that included former prime ministers Koizumi Junichiro and Abe Shinzo among its members. In other words, unlike Koizumi and Abe – who were diehards who always represented the conservative wing of the LDP – Takaichi always had to “prove her worth” to conservatives as she rose through the party ranks.
Now that Takaichi is poised to make history and become Japan’s first female prime minister, it will be imperative for her to have the courage to choose a path as a pragmatic leader, following in the footsteps of her mentor, the late Abe.
Takaichi is already signaling that she will prioritize pragmatism over her political ideology. For example, she mentioned close trilateral cooperation between Japan, South Korea and the United States among her top foreign policy priorities. Throughout the campaign for the PLD presidency, she tried to temper her conservative rhetoric. Asked by the press about the prospect of her visit to the Yasukuni Shrine – which often serves as a litmus test for LDP members’ conservatism – her response closely resembled Abe’s past position: she said she would “make an appropriate decision at that time.”
It is well known that Takaichi’s role model is former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. As she attempts to become Japan’s Thatcher, Takaichi’s success does not depend on her ability to promote specific policies such as Abenomics-style economic policies or a larger defense budget. Her true path to becoming the “Iron Lady of Japan” instead depends on her own political courage to demonstrate her adaptability and flexibility as a leader.