Zohran Mamdani’s main victory in the New York town hall race and the tax revival proposal on the millionaires addressed the fears of a new wave of wealth of the city. However, so far, there has been little evidence of a slowdown in high -end real estate or real wealth losses in New York.
Florida real estate brokers say they have seen an increase in requests from New York rich information looking to move to Miami or Palm Beach. Business owners threaten to leave the city or get closer. And the New York developers, taken in the reticle of the Mamdani rent control platform, have gathered to finance Mamdani’s opponents in the November elections in November.
At the center of economic concern is the so-called Mamdani “millionaire tax”. He offered an additional 2% tax on New Yorkers earning more than a million dollars a year. Added to the current higher rate of 3.876% of the city, the tax would bring to 16.776% the tax and the state tax of New York. The combined federal, state and city rate would be 53.776%.
And New York High Wages will not have to go to Florida to avoid the tax. They can simply move to the County of Long Island or Vestchester Voisin or even New Jersey. Unlike New York State, New York cannot tax people working in the city but have their main residence elsewhere.
“New York City can only tax its own residents,” said Jared Walczak, vice-president of state projects at Tax Foundation. “A speaker does not need to give up the convenience of the city, he just needs to get out of the five districts. Migration through the city lines is the easiest.”
Zohran Mamdani is making gestures while speaking during a surveillance game for his primary elections, which includes his attempt to become a Democratic candidate for the mayor of New York in the next November 2025 elections in New York, the United States on June 25, 2025.
David Delgado | Reuters
Above all, Mamdani would not be able to increase income taxes. The city’s tax rates are set by Albany, where Governor Kathy Hochul said she would block any tax increase. “I don’t want to lose people anymore in Palm Beach,” said Hochul at the New York Post.
Critics also fear that Mamdani’s policies towards police and public security can make the city even more dangerous, becoming the final straw for many business owners and the best employees who were already considering leaving. The highest 1% of New Yorkers pay more than 40% of income taxes, so losing even a small number of high employees would trigger a spiral downwards and lower services and more migration.
New York state has undergone a net loss of $ 14 billion in adjusted income net due to taxpayers leaving 2021 and 2022, according to the tax foundation and IRS data. Revenues from the City of Taxes on Private Income decreased between 2022 and 2024, from $ 16.7 billion in 2022 to 14 billion dollars last year – although they are still higher than the pre -cooked levels of $ 13.4 billion in 2019, according to New York controller data.
At the same time, however, there are signs that the powerful New York wealth machine constantly reconstructs the ranks of millionaires and billionaires, more than compensating the rich who move. The number of millionaires in New York has more than doubled in the last decade – despite the losses coded – at more than 2.4 million, according to Altrata. There are now more than 33,000 New Yorkers worth $ 30 million or more, almost double that of Miami, according to Altrata. Whether it is a question of millionaires, multimillionaries or billionaires, New York has maintained its domination as the richest wealth center in the world.
“New York remains a powerful magnet for the rich, offering a mixture of luxury consumption, dynamic culture, high quality education and lifestyle cachet, with the district of Manhattan the epicenter of ultra-prime real estate,” said a report by Altrata and Kingdom.
The demand for costly luxury apartments in New York also shows no slowdown signs, even after Mamdani’s victory during the June 24 primary. According to Olshan Realty, 64 contracts were signed between June 23 and July 13 for apartments of more than $ 4 million, up 13% compared to last year. Among the contracts signed, there were $ 35 million, divided into three bedrooms on Fifth Avenue, registered for the first time in December.
“The luxury market is being pace for one of its best years,” said Donna Olshan, of Olshan Realty, who also warned that any potential weakness linked to Mamdani could appear in the fall.
Not only did the New York millionaire and billionaire rebounded quickly after Covid, but high fairs have also rebounded. While the city has lost 5,000 net households earning $ 1 million or more during the pandemic, their ranks went from 30,400 in 2019 to 34,127 in 2022, the last period available, according to the fiscal Policy Institute.
Nathan Gusdorf, executive director of the fiscal Policy Institute, said that the story of the New York wealth flight is partially fueled by the media, which highlights a small number of high -level billionaires that move from New York to Florida. Stories about billionaires like Josh Harris, Carl Icahn and Daniel Och decamper in Florida ignores reflux and the wider flow of wealth in New York. The powerful economy of New York, fueled by the financial services industry, continues to produce more new millionaires than it loses.
“We have no fixed population of millionaires who decrease when one of them leaves,” said Gusdorf. “The city regenerates this lost millionaire population.”
Even if Mamdani was to win the mayor in November and increase taxes, the direct impact on wealth flight can be more limited than many are waiting for him. According to the latest research from the Fiscal Policy Center, 1% of New Yorkers by income (those who earn more than $ 800,000 per year) leave the city to one quarter the rate of all other income groups. When New York’s rich move, they most often opted for other high tax states such as New Jersey, Connecticut or California – suggesting that lifestyle rather than taxes is the driver.
“There is a strong indication that higher tax rates at the state level imposed on the best employees have no real behavioral effects,” said Gusdorf.
Others, however, claim that taxes are excessive for the rich, proven by the radical population, the last years of the United States in high tax or tax states such as Florida and Texas.
A study by California Center for Jobs and the economy described a “taxodus” or a net loss of $ 5.3 billion in individual income tax, high wages which left after a 2016 prolongation of higher taxes on the rich.
“High tax rates cause depression and growth in lower income,” said Walczak.