Since the unprecedented break between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on February 28, the Japanese government has struggled to face the rapidly evolving situation.
The opposition parties call Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru to unite their forces with European countries who have expressed their solidarity with Ukraine, but Ishiba has maintained a neutral position, suggesting that he wants to avoid aggravating links with the American government led by Trump, the only ally in Japan.
Responding to the confrontation of the White House between Trump and Zelensky, the leaders of the main Western countries explicitly expressed their unwavering support to Ukraine.
But Ishiba played word games, avoiding Trump’s criticism, insisting that it would mean “taking sides”.
“I have absolutely no intention of taking sides” between the United States and Ukraine, Ishiba told the budget committee of the House of Representatives on March 3.
The Prime Minister stressed that he “would like to make other efforts to see how we can keep the American involvement and how we can ensure the unity of the G-7 countries as a whole.” Japan, like the United States, is a member of the G7.
But there is no sign that ISHIBA plays a proactive international role, as to serve as a bridge between the United States and Ukraine, or between the United States and Europe, where the gap widens.
There are measures that Tokyo can take as a member of the G-7, such as sending a special envoy to the countries concerned, reaffirming continuous support from Ukraine and puts a telephone call to other G-7 leaders. If the late Abe Shinzo was the Prime Minister today, Japan would probably lead more proactive diplomacy.
If Ishiba, who has been promoted as a security expert in Japan for years, continues to wait and see, the division between the G-7 nations could expand.
According to the Kiel Institute for the Global Economy, a German economic reflection group, Japan has provided 11 billion euros in help from Ukraine since the start of Ukraine’s invasion by Russia in February 2022 to December 2024, ranking fourth among all countries after the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom.
Although Japan has provided a lot of money to support Ukraine, Tokyo has no visible presence on the international scene in the middle of the high -level split between kyiv and Washington.
In addition, in recent years, Tokyo has endeavored to consolidate his security cooperation with Western countries sharing the same ideas, on the basis of the shared values of freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law. Consequently, the present and silent position current of the Japanese government towards Trump is questioned to be incompatible with what Japan has said so far.
Trump demanded mineral resources from Zelenskyy, which seems to be a kick in the coasts of a country victim of Russian aggression. More than a few media reported that Trump was bringing together nineteenth -century imperialism.
For the future, in the worst case, the pro-Russian Trump and the Russian president Vladimir Putin can change the geopolitical image. What was still “Russia against the West” can become “America and Russia against Western Europe” under Trump. If this happens, Ukraine can become prey for the United States and Russia.
Will Japan always support Ukraine then?
No matter how many other countries insist that they will not allow the status quo to be modified by the use of force by Russia, if the United States – the most powerful country in the world – approves it, the rest of the world will have no choice but to accept it.
While the Trump administration abandons Ukraine, it is not known either when the United States will withdraw its East Asian troops.
When asked, “Are you going to defend Taiwan if China attack it?” Trump said that if there was an attack, “we will impose prices of 150 to 200% on China.” He said he would punish China with prices, but he didn’t say he would send the army. He may abandon Taiwan against China with nuclear arms.
March 6 As the diplomat predicted itTrump complained that the American bilateral security arrangement with Japan, signed in 1960, was unilateral.
Meanwhile, on March 4, Elbridge Colby, the candidate for the Defense Subsecretaire for politics, post No. 3 of the Pentagon, told the Senate armed services committee that “Japan should spend at least 3% of the gross domestic product on defense as soon as possible and accelerate the overhaul of its soldiers to focus on denial defense of its own archipelago and collective defense in its region.”
Colby also said Taiwan should increase his defense expenses to around 10% of GDP.
Ishiba also underlined during the recent diet meeting: “Ukraine today could be Eastern Asia of tomorrow. We must also consider regularly increasing our dissuasive power to prevent war. He is absolutely right.
Japan should see this as a good opportunity to return to a “normal country” with complete military capacities to carry out offensive operations if necessary. Japan must stop counting too much on the United States and work harder to strengthen its independent defense capacities. The same goes for Taiwan.
In fact, by anticipating the decline of American hegemony, South Korea has worked hard to strengthen its independent national defense for years, within the framework of conservative and progressive governments.
“Given the contradictory circumstances, Japan is obliged to make difficult decisions about the quantity it should follow in the footsteps of the United States, and for how long,” said Colonel Frank Kowalski, who was the chief of staff of the American military advisory group who helped establish the national police reserve, the predecessor for the Japanese legitimate forces, written in his memory published in 1969.
Now, 56 years later, these questions are asked again in Tokyo.