The current irony of Malaysian politics is that although Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition and the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition currently need each other to stay in power, they are simultaneously competing to become the dominant force of tomorrow.
The back-to-back national elections in Johor on July 11 and Negeri Sembilan on August 1 are more than routine national elections. They have become a crucial showdown between the two main pillars of the federal government. Although PH and BN are partners in Putrajaya, both are using these elections to consolidate their political bases, regain lost supporters and improve their negotiating position ahead of the next general election, which is due to take place in early 2028 – but could be called earlier.
Southern polls have highlighted the contradictions within the Madani government. Federal cooperation has not erased decades of rivalry between Anwar and his allies on the one hand, and the BN on the other. Instead, both coalitions seek to prove that they, rather than their coalition partner, represent the future of Malaysian politics. Elections are actually a struggle for supremacy within the government itself, with each side hoping that a good performance will strengthen their claim to leadership in the next election cycle.
In Johor, home of the United Malaysians National Organization (UMNO), the main component of the BN, the latter sees an opportunity to demonstrate that it remains a formidable political force despite the loss of federal power in 2018. The coalition’s campaign has centered on Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi, whose administration has been credited with attracting record investments and fostering economic growth. Another convincing victory in Johor would strengthen UMNO’s argument that it deserves a bigger role in the federal government and could even pave the way for its return to national leadership.
PH, however, believes that the state’s unique political arrangement provides it with an opening. Dr Mujahid Yusof of Amanah, one of the constituent parties in the coalition, urged voters to align the state and federal administrations by giving PH a stronger mandate. The PH coalition argues that its dual role – as a partner of the federal government and a check on the BN-led state government – can provide both accountability and stability.
Negeri Sembilan presents a different challenge. The state is seen as a more effective test for Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership and PH’s political appeal. The split within Anwar’s PKR and the re-emergence of Bersama under the leadership of former ministers Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad threaten to fragment PH’s support base. The collapse of Negeri Sembilan’s government earlier this year, after the BN withdrew support, further complicated the political landscape.
For Anwar, losing Negeri Sembilan would be a serious political setback, fueling criticism of his reform agenda and intensifying calls for early general elections. Conversely, a victory would strengthen his position and give new impetus to the Madani government.
The elections are also taking place against a backdrop of declining party loyalty and an increasingly unpredictable electorate. Younger voters, many of whom remain undecided, are less tied to traditional political identities and more concerned with economic, governance and cost-of-living issues. Both PH and BN are trying to win over these voters while preventing further gains by the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Ultimately, Johor and Negeri Sembilan will be dress rehearsals for the next general election. The results will reveal whether Anwar’s governing alliance remains politically viable and, more importantly, whether PH or UMNO (or neither) will emerge as a dominant force capable of shaping the next phase of Malaysian politics.