Chinese President Xi Jinping used his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump last week to reiterate that Taiwan remains the most sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations, and analysts told Radio Free Asia that the Taiwan issue would be at the forefront under Beijing’s latest five-year plan.
During discussions in Beijing, Xi warned Trump that mishandling the Taiwan issue could lead to “clashes or even conflicts” and urged Washington to “exercise greater caution” regarding arms sales to Taiwan, according to Chinese state media and media following the summit.
Xi’s statements, combined with concepts laid out in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, released in March, suggest that Beijing increasingly views Taiwan and the South China Sea as part of a connected strategic theater linked to regional security, maritime control and long-term competition with Washington, analysts said.
Mainland Communist China views democratic Taiwan as a rogue province and Beijing appears to be entering “a phase of taking more concrete steps to accelerate reunification efforts,” William Yang, a Northeast Asia analyst at the Belgium-based think tank International Crisis Group, told RFA.
“As the Communist Party continues to talk about peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait, it has linked the mission of ‘reunification’ to the goal of national modernization, suggesting that Beijing wants to start making more concrete progress on the issue of unification with Taiwan,” he said, speaking about the content of the five-year plan.
Maritime strategy
The plan reflects leadership increasingly concerned about the “uncertainty and instability” of the global environment while seeking to strengthen Beijing’s position around Taiwan and the South China Sea, according to a new report from the US think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute, or FPRI.
The report outlines China’s growing efforts to strengthen control over neighboring maritime areas, including the resumption of island-building activities at Antelope Reef in the South China Sea.
Yang said Beijing increasingly views Taiwan and the South China Sea in the same strategic light.
“China certainly views the Taiwan and South China Sea theater as closely intertwined, so its strategic planning and preparation around Taiwan and the South China Sea should also be seen as very relevant,” Yang said. “Beijing’s activities around Taiwan and the South China Sea should be seen as part of its broader efforts to strengthen its position and expand its presence and control over critical shipping lanes and maritime chokepoints. »
He added that Washington’s own assessment of China’s intentions was evolving.
“The long-standing dominant narrative in Washington regarding China’s calculations and plans for Taiwan and the South China Sea has always been that Beijing seeks to assert its dominance over Taiwan and the South China Sea to realize its hegemonic ambition in the Indo-Pacific region,” Yang said. “However, U.S. intelligence already reversed that assessment earlier this year by arguing that it did not believe China would seek to invade Taiwan by 2027.”
Speaking after his meeting with Xi, Trump said the two sides had “talked a lot about Taiwan” but said he had made no commitments to Beijing. He also refused to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
Trump further described the ongoing U.S. weapons project for Taiwan as “a very good bargaining chip,” sparking concerns in Taiwan about whether Washington’s support could be tied to broader negotiations with Beijing.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te later defended U.S. arms purchases as “the most important deterrent” against regional instability, while Taiwanese officials stressed that there had been no change in long-standing U.S. policy toward the island.
Strength strategy
Rather than signaling a radical strategic shift, the five-year plan represents a more systematic effort to strengthen China’s position over time, Sylwia M. Gorska, a doctoral student in international relations at the University of Lancashire in the United Kingdom, told RFA.
“The underlying priorities remain largely consistent: securing China’s maritime periphery, reducing vulnerability to external pressures, and limiting the ability of the United States and its allies to limit Chinese influence near the continent,” Gorska said.
She said Beijing appeared increasingly focused on “steadily strengthening its position in disputed waters” through coast guard operations, maritime militia activity and persistent military pressure below the threshold of open conflict.
“There appears to be a closer connection emerging between Beijing’s strategy on Taiwan and its position in the South China Sea,” Gorska said, noting that this trend was visible in Beijing’s confrontations with the Philippines around the Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed Spratly Islands chain, as well as in China’s increasing naval and air activity around Taiwan.
“The problem is not only territorial control, but also the creation of conditions that could complicate external military responses in a future regional crisis. »
The FPRI report also asserts that Beijing’s growing emphasis on instability and “security” suggests that the Chinese Communist Party increasingly sees strategic opportunities in a distracted United States and fragmented international environment.
He said China would likely continue to promote its “Community of Common Destiny” vision and broader governance initiatives through multilateral institutions, including the United Nations.
Gorska cautioned against viewing China’s strategic actions as preparation for inevitable conflict.
“Beijing still seems more focused on expanding its influence, limiting the United States’ freedom of maneuver and improving its long-term position than on starting a war in the short term,” Gorska said.
Edited by Eugene Whong.