It was a historic but chaotic week for Philippine politics.
On May 11, Vice President Sara Duterte was impeached for the second time by members of the House of Representatives.
The same day, Duterte’s allies took over the Senate, meaning they will oversee the vice president’s impeachment trial.
An arrest warrant was also issued by the International Criminal Court for Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a former police chief who led the bloody campaign against illegal drugs during the term of President Rodrigo Duterte, Sara Duterte’s father.
Instead of surrendering, Bato sought refuge in the Senate, which granted him protective custody. Days later, Bato snuck out of the Senate to avoid arrest, as he dismissed the ICC case as an act of foreign interference.
What are the implications of these actions and developments for Philippine politics?
First, the new Senate majority has clearly demonstrated that it has the numbers to acquit Sara Duterte. At least 16 votes are needed to convict the vice president, which would remove her from office and prevent her from holding elected office for life. Duterte can simply count on the loyalty of his faction in the Senate to survive the impeachment trial and emerge stronger ahead of his planned bid in the 2028 presidential election.
Pro-Duterte senators may also maneuver to delay and prolong the impeachment. For example, they can invoke legal provisions to block the presentation of evidence or restrict the release of documents that can be shared with the public. They may echo the Duterte camp’s argument that publishing the financial data of the vice president and her husband violates privacy and banking secrecy laws.
But even though she has the Senate majority on her side, Duterte’s political influence was undermined after she failed to convince House members to vote against his impeachment. Despite the threat made by a pro-Duterte party, the final impeachment result was higher than last year. Either the parliamentary majority has redoubled its efforts to consolidate its ranks, or Duterte’s political influence has eroded. Duterte may be performing well in public opinion polls, but she needs the political machine of local lawmakers to ensure her victory in the 2028 elections.
Duterte’s impeachment reflects the dominance of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s allies in the House, but the Senate coup and Bato’s audacious escape highlighted the challenges facing a president whose term is set to end in two years. The Marcos government faces the embarrassing prospect of failing to convict Duterte in the Senate and continuing to fail to execute the ICC’s arrest warrant for Bato and his drug war co-conspirators.
The deadlock in the Senate has intensified the political crisis, which could seriously affect the work of Congress. Legislative issues are held hostage by frequent changes at the head of the Senate. This could derail the passage of priority bills, hamper the ongoing anti-corruption investigation and prevent urgent coordination between the two chambers of Congress, the presidential palace and other government agencies.
Although the Duterte bloc may have gained the upper hand in the Senate, the crisis it triggered has reinforced the argument that it is almost impossible to conduct an impartial, credible and safe trial involving current and former officials involved in the bloody “war on drugs.” How can victims of the drug war expect a fair judicial process if the Senate even offers sanctuary to a suspect accused of crimes against humanity? This confirmed the importance of pursuing justice through the ICC.
The Senate will be at the center of political drama in the coming weeks and months, coinciding with Duterte’s impeachment trial and Bato’s desperate attempt to evade arrest. The anti-corruption movement that has mobilized more than 100,000 people in 2025 is expected to hold vigils, protests and delegations inside and outside the Senate to mobilize support for the call for accountability. Meanwhile, Duterte supporters are amplifying the call to reject the impeachment process.
Philippine politics will become more polarized as rival forces seek to outmaneuver each other in their bid for dominance before the start of next year’s election season. What is crucial for the opposition bloc is to present itself as a viable electoral force, more interested in promoting political reforms, economic aid and fighting for accountability and justice.