As Sino-American tensions persist, will ASEAN remain a scene of competition between the two great powers? Or will the region become an actor that actively shapes the regional order by strengthening its own unity and institutional capacity? According to the State of Southeast Asia: 2026 Survey Report released by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, as caution persists towards the United States and China, the region is becoming increasingly aware of the need to strengthen its collective self-reliance by strengthening ASEAN’s resilience and unity. Japan must recognize its role in strengthening ASEAN’s autonomy as part of its own economic strategy.
Neither China nor the United States: ASEANThe unstable equilibrium of
It is true that in the 2026 edition, trust in China across ASEAN reached 39.8%, surpassing distrust for the first time since the survey began. However, it is too early to conclude that ASEAN is siding with China. While China is widely considered the most influential economic power in the region, more than half of respondents (55.4%) expressed concern about China’s growing influence. As for China’s expanding political and strategic influence, 66.1 percent of respondents expressed concern. It is difficult to distance the region economically from China, but there is a strong sense of distrust in the region’s political and security spheres. This duality is the very essence of how ASEAN citizens currently perceive China.
The same goes for the United States. Overall, net trust in the United States remains positive, even under the unpredictable Trump administration, but the picture is uneven at the country level. Indonesia and Malaysia have a deep distrust of the United States over its response to Palestine, while Singapore now has distrust and distrust of Washington’s opaque trade policies. Although a majority of respondents said they would choose China over the United States if they had to choose one, this should be seen less as a shift toward China and more as a reflection of distrust of the United States. In other words, ASEAN has concluded that it cannot trust either China or the United States.
Resilience and unity
This is where the desire for autonomy is born. When it comes to responding to tensions between the United States and China, a clear majority believes that ASEAN should strengthen its resilience and unity to fend off pressure from the two major powers. This is a sign that ASEAN respondents increasingly recognize that non-alignment or passive neutrality is no longer enough. Even in reciprocal tariff negotiations, ASEAN member states were unable to present a united front and, ultimately, each country ended up negotiating separately under US pressure. If Southeast Asia fails to demonstrate its autonomy and engage in collective bargaining, the centrality of ASEAN itself could be undermined, or even transform into a centrifugal force that weakens regional cohesion and casts doubt on the ASEAN community itself.
From Japan’s perspective, this is the heart of the 2026 survey. What ASEAN needs is a third option that is aligned with neither China nor the United States. This means strengthening its own institutional capacity and policy coordination capacity. In fact, the survey indicates that “lack of national capacity for technocratic implementation among member states” and “differences in economic development” are considered the main obstacles to economic integration, even more than pressure to prioritize national interests or lack of political will regarding ASEAN centrality. The problem lies in the lack of implementation capacity. The success of true integration will depend on whether the different rules agreed within ASEAN can be applied consistently across all member states.
A role for Japan
Japan can play a major role in supporting the institutional foundations that ASEAN needs to avoid dependence on major powers. At the Davos Forum in January, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for “unity of middle powers,” a call that carries great weight for Canada and Japan. If the United States and China, the two major world powers, weaken the international order, Japan should stand with Australia, Canada, the EU and India to support the expansion of options and jointly support ASEAN’s autonomy as a collective middle power.
The areas of cooperation are clear. Supporting customs procedures, standard certifications, rules of origin and the implementation of digital systems will improve the efficiency of ASEAN integration. The region’s resilience can also be strengthened through cooperation on climate change, energy transitions, food security, maritime security and measures against cross-border crime. Furthermore, supporting rule-making in the digital and green domains will also enable ASEAN to move from being a rule-taker to a rule-maker. For Japanese companies too, these initiatives are directly linked to greater stability in customs clearance costs, regulatory compliance costs, supply chains, investment decisions and business continuity planning. Support for ASEAN is not a gesture of goodwill, but is part of Japan’s economic strategy.
Rather than demonstrating growing confidence in China, the 2026 ISEAS survey found that ASEAN has finally begun to reject its role as a stage for tensions between the United States and China. Japan’s role is to support this evolution towards greater autonomy. A resilient ASEAN will not only contribute to regional stability; it will also provide the most realistic path for Japan and ASEAN to navigate an increasingly unstable Indo-Pacific caught in the rivalry between the United States and China.