Toyota Motor Corp. Vehicles intended for shipment to Nagoya Port in Tokai, Aichi Prefecture, Japan on Tuesday, April 29, 2025.
Toru Hanai | Bloomberg | Getty Images
DETROIT — Toyota engineHyundai Motor and Chinese automakers such as Chery are most likely to face the potential impact of foreign automakers in the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, according to an analysis by Bernstein.
These international automakers account for about a third of sales in the Middle East, according to the report, led by Toyota with 17%. Hyundai at 10% and Chery at 5%. In Iran specifically, Bernstein reports that Iranian automakers Iran Khodro and SAIPA are in the lead, followed by Chery with a 6% market share.
Other Chinese automakers are also expected to be affected, as the Middle East has become a growing destination for Chinese auto exports. Bernstein, citing Chinese export data, said the region would account for about 17% of China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025.
The Bernstein report notes that while sales in the region will be affected, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, and rising oil prices will have ripple effects throughout the global auto industry.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz adds 10 to 14 days to transit times,” Eunice Lee, an analyst at Bernstein, said in a note to investors on Wednesday, adding that “a prolonged conflict and closure of the strait would hurt sales, increase logistics costs and delay deliveries.”
About 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait every day, according to consultancy AlixPartners. It is also a “critical passage” for shipments of vehicles and parts to the Middle East, Bernstein noted.
Bernstein said any effect on Japanese automakers “appears limited for now, but close monitoring of developments is still necessary.” He also said, regarding European automakers, parent company Chrysler and Jeep Stellantis “seems to have the greatest exposure in light of its overall problems.”
“The impact of rising gasoline prices at the pump is already visible in the 11% drop in Stellantis’ stock price since its close last Friday — making such a sharp shift toward gas-guzzling HEMI V8 engines and rolling back its electrification efforts seems particularly ill-timed at this time,” Lee wrote.
U.S. crude oil prices topped $90 a barrel on Friday, and U.S. retail gasoline prices jumped nearly 27 cents in the past week through Thursday to average $3.25 a gallon, according to motorists group AAA.
Stellantis said this week that it was “closely monitoring developments in the affected countries,” noting that it was “not yet possible to fully assess the potential impact on local operations.”
Toyota, in an emailed statement, said it “does not do business in Iran and has no resident employees there.” The company said it was “closely monitoring the situation and prioritizing the safety of our local resident employees in the Middle East and related parties.”
Hyundai and Chery did not immediately respond to requests for comment.