The odds have been favoring a Democratic victory in the House for nearly a year. Midterm elections are generally not kind to presidents, and Trump’s approval ratings began to plummet three weeks into his second administration. The fall continued throughout his first year.
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The president’s tariffs and lack of concern about costs and inflation have angered voters and turned many against his administration.
Even though ICE is rightly in the headlines, the issue that continues to propel the midterm elections in Democrats’ favor is the economy.
Incumbent senators typically have a re-election rate of around 80 percent or higher. It is rare, in a year without a presidential election, for a wave of incumbent senators to lose.
In 2022, 100% of incumbent senators up for re-election were elected. The bottom. The lowest re-election rate for incumbent senators in the last twenty years was recorded in 2006, when it was 78.3%.
There appears to be a wave against Trump and the Republican Party in 2026, and this wave is starting to worry. Republicans, even in red states like Texas, where if incumbent Sen. John Cornyn loses the GOP primary, Democrats are seen as having a chance to win a Senate seat in a state they haven’t won statewide in decades.
Republicans have more than just a problem with the Texas Senate. The issue is becoming an issue in the national Senate, and Trump is to blame.