The April 4 meeting between Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, on the sidelines of the 6th Summit of Bimstec in Bangkok, Thailand, had been difficult to organize.
Back in Nepal, Oli had blamed India for fomented increasing pro-monarchy demonstrations.
In the first sign of problem, on March 9, around 10,000 people introduced themselves to welcome the former King Gyanendra Shah in the national capital of Kathmandu of his tour of Western Nepal. Few people expected so many people on the day. Then, in a sad turn of events, on March 28, two people were killed and dozens of others were injured in clashes between pro-monarchy supporters and the police.
Oli’s Communist Party, the Nepal Marxist Party of Nepal, officially declared that India supported the demonstrators.
But while on the one hand, Oli was busy accusing India, on the other, he desperately asked for an audience with the Indian Prime Minister. Many believe that his anti-Indian posture also aimed to attract the attention of Modi.
Oli obtained his wish when Modi agreed to see him for about half an hour in Bangkok.
Over things, the two spoke for almost 45 minutes, of which about 30 minutes were spent in an individual dialogue. After the meeting, Oli would have been optimistic, saying that he expected India soon invited him for an official visit to New Delhi. However, in addition to the usual bromures, few substances have emerged from this meeting.
A trip to New Delhi is considered a rite of passage when a new Prime Minister assumes an office in Nepal. He points out that India welcomes the new government and is ready to do business with it.
But India has not yet invited Oli, even if it has been almost nine months since he became Prime Minister. After having repeatedly failed to obtain an invitation from New Delhi, the Nepalese Prime Minister decided to go to Beijing in December 2024. There he supervised the signing of the belt agreement and the BRI (BRI) road for the operationalization of the Nepal-Chine Brsta Agreement.
This time, in Bangkok, Modi would have lived that if Oli wanted to improve links with New Delhi, the ball is firmly in his courtyard.
Upon his return to Kathmandu, when Oli was questioned about the meeting with Modi eventually throwing the field of his trip to New Delhi, the Prime Minister replied that the reason why he had not gone to India so far was because of his own busy schedule. Unlike Bangkok, he also seemed much less sure to obtain an invitation from New Delhi and bypassed such indices.
During the Bangkok meeting, Oli also invited Modi for Sagarmatha Sambat (May 16-18), the platform for the flagship international dialogue of Nepal in the image of the Shangri-La de Singapore Shangri-La Dialogue Shangri-La Dialogue. Modi apparently replied that he would not come when Sambat’s dates compete with his trip to Europe.
So, apart from the optics, one, Modi does not come soon to Nepal, and two, Oli did not obtain an invitation to visit New Delhi, something he had desperately tried to obtain.
There are fundamental differences between Oli and New Delhi. India has not forgotten that it was under its direction that Nepal inserted in its constitution a new Nepalese national card which includes the whole territory of the Kalapani region, some of which claim India. In fact, Modi would have said to Oli in Bangkok that “Nepal had to abandon its irrational claim on an area of 335 square kilometers in the Uttarakhand encompassing Limpiyadhura, Kalapani and Lipulekh.”
Oli also said that Lord Rama was born in Nepal and made fun of the national emblem of India, which, according to him, should read “Singhamev Jayate” (could prevail) rather than “Satyamev Jayate” (the truth will prevail). It was also Oli who took the initiative to sign historic trade and transit agreements with China after the 2015-2016 unofficial Indian blockade.
There is still a lot of resistance to New Delhi to give Oli an advantage of doubt and the normalization of links with his government.
If anything, India could make life more difficult to Oli because pro-monarchy and pro-Hindu state gatherings gain ground in Nepal. That New Delhi actively supports the reintegration of a Hindu state and monarch, he could use these protests as a lever against Oli at a time when the Nepalese Prime Minister faces considerable pressures at home, not just opposition but even his coalition partners.
It is in the interest of Kathmandu and Oli to carefully calibrate relations with New Delhi in the new context. On the one hand, Oli should reduce its denigration of India. Its ringing strategy that is difficult to attract the attention of Modi does not work.