2024 was an eventful year for missile technologies in South Asia.
India has carried out a total of 14 missile tests, including cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles. At the beginning of 2024, in March, India tested An Agni-V missile equipped with multiple independent target return vehicle technology (MIRV). In November, India tested A long -range hypersonic missile, becoming one of the few countries to have technology. Between the two, he also led a Test launch From the launching missile of the K4 submarine (SLBM) and deployed it on Ins Arighaat. India has also tested an improved version of the Nirbhay cruise missile, which has a range of around 1000 kilometers and can be an important component of the new Indian integrated rocket force. In addition, he too tested Its phase II ballistic anti -missile defense system. These missile tests highlight qualitative and quantitative growth in the Indian missile arsenal
Pakistan, on the other hand, has led a test of the Fatah-II rocket system andtested Its Shaheen-II missile. Fatah-II is a small-range ballistic missile guided by rockets that can hit its targets with precision. Shahen-II, which has a 2,000 km fork, was tested to improve its precision and improve survival. Towards the end of the year, Washington sanctioned Pakistan missile program, alleging that Islamabad builds missiles that can reach the United States, a complaint vehemently refuted by Pakistan.
Let’s see in more detail the systems involved in India and the Rafale of Pakistan tests.
Agni-V and Mirv
The Agni-V of India is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), with a range of more than 7000 km. MIRV technology can be used against ballistic anti-missile defense systems, but is also a powerful counter-produce weapon. MIRV missiles can be used as a first strike option, exponentially increasing the balance of power for an attack by increasing the digital advantage over the defense force. They can also be used to destroy hardened targets using several warheads in a circle of a few kilometers.
The capacity to deploy MIRV technology on the Agni-V is contributory Towards change the nuclear posture of India from a credible minimum deterrence to a posture of fighting war vis-à-vis Pakistan. This development reinforcement The affirmation of Pakistan that India moves from use without first use to a complete first strike strategy.
Hypersonic cruise missile
The Test of India of a long range hypersonic Cruise missile placed it in a club from a few selected countries. The missile has a range of more than 1,500 km and can compress more the already short reaction time between India and Pakistan. Hypersonic weapons can offer India increased ability to make precision strikes during a crisis. They can be used to target nuclear command and control centers or other strategic assets using a conventional payload-that is to say without breaking the nuclear taboo. In short, the use of long -range conventional hypersonic missiles during a crisis can further increase the risks of war in the region.
K-4 SLBM
The K-4 SLBM has a range of 3,500 km and is deployed on the INS ARIGHAAT, offering India an improved second strike capacity. This is a major improvement compared to the K-15 which has only 700 km. This would give India the ability to hit the whole territory of Pakistan while operating from Bengal Bay. India can also use its new MIRV technology for the K-4 missile, further improving its capacities.
India has now ordered two nuclear submarines, Ins ARIIGHA and IS ARIGAAT, with a third, Aridhamanto be inducted this year. In addition, India also has a fleet 17 diesel-electric attack submarines. India has also sign A “ten-year rental agreement” with Russia for another Akula class fast-class attack submarine to transfer to India by 2025. India plans To build a fleet of six nuclear propulsion attack submarines (SSN) and gave the green light for the first two. The growing underwater fleet of India, unlike Pakistan, can disturb the mutually guaranteed destruction equation (MAD) in South Asia.
Nirbhay and integrated Rocket Force cruise missile
India has also tested a long -range land attack missile (LRLACM) which has a range of more than 1,000 km. It was described by civil servants of the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) as a new variant of the Nirbhay cruise missile.
India has established An integrated rocket force (IRF) to improve its prowess and its conventional capacity to carry out a contactless war. IRF would mainly include Pralay missiles – India already has 120 and plans to create 250 others. The Pralay missile range is between 150 and 500 km, making it tactical missiles that can be used on the battlefield. In addition to Pralay, the IRF would also compromise the Brahmos, LRLACM and Nirbhay missiles to provide India with profitable measures compared to heavy military deployments or the participation of the Air Force. They can also be used for surgical strikes, as its previous confrontation with Pakistan in 2019 led to the loss of an airplane.
This development can however weaken the stability of the crisis in the region. The use of missiles was not a standard between India and Pakistan, and such a precedent would only increase the threshold for the use of force between the two states.
Phase II Ballistic Antiimissile Defense Interceptor (BMD)
The Endo-Atmospheric Missile Test of Air Defense in phase II (AD) indicates that the indigenous BMD system of India is in advanced phase. The reported range of missile is 5,000 km, offering India the ability to intercept the missile of an opponent in its terminal stadium.
India development of an indigenous DMO system – alongside the S -400 acquired from Russia – may create a feeling of false security that India can defend against Pakistan’s nuclear force. The development of the India DMO system is a question of concern for Pakistan because these systems can protect against the residual missile force of Islamabad if New Delhi takes a first strike. This false feeling of security can exacerbate the instability of the crisis in the region, putting Pakistan in a dilemma “USE-IT or loses” in a future crisis.
Pakistan missile developments
Fatah-II was developed by Pakistan to provide the ability to penetrate more precision and precision into the enemy territory – the missile has a circular error (CEP) probe of less than one meter. The missile is an advanced variant of Fatah-I, increasing the beach from 150 km to 400 km. Due to its precision, its precision and its profitability, the Fatah-II provides Pakistan a solution to counter the anti-missile defense system of India and Cold start Doctrine of India. The development of Pralay and Nirbhay missiles by India and Fatah-II by Pakistan highlights increased accent on conventional missile systems in the region.
Pakistan strategic calculation is centered on India and he has again reiterated that his nuclear capacities are only targeting threats from New Delhi. Pakistan missile developments are qualitative, aimed at improving the survival of its nuclear forces. To ensure the credibility of its nuclear forces, Pakistan’s missile systems comply with its full deterrence policy in the broader principle of minimum credible deterrence.
The Pakistan missile program was struck by American sanctions towards the end of 2024. The assertion that it developed a nuclear missile capable of reaching the United States was refuted in an official declaration of the Foreign Office of Pakistan. Opinion in Islamabad is that these sanctions would only like the already increasing missile gap in South Asia, hampering Pakistan’s efforts to maintain strategic stability towards India.
The upcoming road
Missile developments in Southern Asia in 2024 are a prelude to similar progress in 2025. While the arms race has an alarming speed, the situation requires a serious evaluation. The two states should work towards a kind of bilateral mechanism to ensure risk reduction measures.
The first step in this direction may be to expand the already existing agreement to provide notice of ballistic missile tests to include cruise and hypersonic missiles. In addition, due to the growing development of double compensation missile systems, it is essential to take some measures to reassure the opponent that missiles are only used for conventional roles and which are used for a nuclear role. Steps like these can help ensure the stability of the region in the face of the advancement of missile technology.