Customers shop at a Walmart store on May 13, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
With all eyes on the health of the American consumer, WalmartThe first-quarter fiscal earnings report Thursday morning could offer Wall Street some of the best clues yet.
The big-box retailer is expected to report another quarter of higher sales and profits, but its comments on consumer spending — whether and where it sees pressures — could offer investors a glimpse into the strength of the U.S. economy.
Here’s what analysts expect Walmart to report for the quarter, according to LSEG consensus estimates:
- Earnings per share: 66 cents per share
- Income: $175 billion
In the three months since Walmart last reported results, new conflict has erupted in the Middle East, gas prices have soared and consumer confidence has collapsed, falling to a new record low in May. This wave of bad news comes on top of years of persistent inflation, higher interest rates and a global trade war that has pushed prices even higher.
Walmart has long been among the best positioned to weather any economic storm, but given the large segment of consumers it caters to, it is uniquely positioned to see if and where cracks in the economy form.
Long a value play among lower-income shoppers, Walmart has won over more high-income consumers in recent years, helping fuel its growth and shielding it from economic shocks that have hit lower incomes hardest.
When they report results Thursday morning, investors will want to know: Are higher-income shoppers still as resilient as they have been, or are rising gas prices having an impact? What additional pressure do low-income buyers face?
If consumers begin to opt out, leading to a greater concentration of lower-margin groceries over higher-margin discretionary products, Walmart’s additional revenue streams should help offset those pressures. Its advertising and marketplace businesses are both high-margin revenue streams that have helped Walmart keep prices low and maintain profits.
So far this earnings season, big companies have largely said consumer spending has been resilient to rising gasoline prices. But this resilience has also been accompanied by higher tax returns, which Target said Wednesday may have fueled some of the growth seen during the first quarter.
“We believe that higher tax refunds this year were a source of increased consumer spending in the first quarter, and that this benefit will fade over the remainder of the year,” Chief Financial Officer Jim Lee said on a call with analysts. “Even though consumers have been resilient so far, their confidence has declined recently. And we are closely monitoring their spending behavior.”
Investors will want to know if Walmart has seen a similar trend and what that could mean for the fiscal year and the broader economy.