The mainstream media has invested heavily in electing Donald Trump in 2024, and they have done everything in their power to ignore the fact that the candidate is suffering from cognitive and physical decline while being historically unpopular with voters.
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Trump’s attempt to rig the midterm elections through gerrymandering in the middle of the decade still relied on the assumption that the 2026 elections would be close, but Democrats’ outperformance in the special election indicates that voters are angry and want change.
This dynamic is no different than in 2024, when voters were angry about the economy, costs and inflation and demanded change. The difference is that the Democrats are the party of change in 2026.
The political shoe has changed, and now it’s the Republican Party trying to find a way to survive with an unpopular president and a brutal economy. The difference is that Trump is actively taking steps to make the economy worse and is trapped in a war in the Middle East.
Even with the Supreme Court’s conservative decision on the Voting Rights Act and Virginia’s new map rejected by the state Supreme Court, little has changed.
Kyle Kondik is an American election analyst and editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, and he crunched the numbers.
Kondik posted on X:
Following the VA and new TN/FL cards, 211 at least Leans R, 208 at least Leans D, 16 Toss-ups. I do, however, think it’s reasonable to assume that Ds will win the majority of rolls, and probably more beyond that.
Kondik’s analysis doesn’t include three additional minority districts that could be eliminated in the South, but that’s still not enough to save the Republican majority, and we’ll examine it below.