The economic consequences of the war in the Middle East dominated discussions among senior Southeast Asian officials at the 48th ASEAN summit and related meetings, which began yesterday in the Philippines.
Philippine Foreign Minister Ma. Theresa Lazaro, chairing the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting (AMM) in Cebu, said the ongoing conflict in Iran has disrupted energy flows, trade routes and food supply chains within the 11-country bloc.
“The crisis has also disrupted several sectors, including transport and tourism, while putting millions of ASEAN nationals in West Asia at risk,” she said in her opening speech at the WMA, according to Malaysia’s official news agency Bernama.
ASEAN, which has around 700 million inhabitants, is one of the regions most affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict at the end of February.
Lazaro said ASEAN imports about 66 percent of its crude oil and is now facing a significant increase in fuel and energy costs which, in turn, would drive up prices of food and other essential goods.
Governments in the region have responded to the oil supply shock in several ways. Some have increased coal-fired electricity generation and most have introduced a series of measures designed to conserve supplies. Most countries have also turned to other oil suppliers, notably Russia.
The energy supply shock is an example of how events outside the region could have “immediate and profound effects” on ASEAN economies, Lazaro said, calling for a joint regional response. “ASEAN needs to strengthen its crisis coordination and institutional preparedness,” she added.
The energy crisis is one of the most pressing challenges facing the Philippines as ASEAN chair this year, one that threatens to absorb its limited attention and distract from other pressing issues facing the bloc. These include the conflict in Myanmar, the ongoing border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, and ongoing maritime tensions in the South China Sea.
The Philippines has already convened two emergency meetings of ASEAN foreign ministers to discuss the Middle East crisis, on March 13 and April 13, and, as ASEAN chair, called for de-escalation and dialogue between the United States, Israel and Iran.
Among the specific initiatives championed by the Philippines as president is a regional oil-sharing framework agreement that will help alleviate the supply deficit. Manila says it is also prioritizing the implementation of the long-awaited ASEAN-wide power grid plan to accelerate energy sharing among member states.
At a separate joint meeting of ASEAN Foreign and Economic Ministers yesterday, delegates discussed the development of a “crisis communications protocol” at the ministerial level to ensure “a coherent, timely and coordinated response” to all crises.
According to a statement issued by the president, the ministers also exchanged views on the broader regional implications of the war in the Middle East. They identified “practical and concrete response measures to strengthen energy security, safeguard food security and coordinate humanitarian responses”.
“Some proposals raised included diversifying energy sources, suppliers and routes; improving food surveillance, information sharing and preparedness measures; and strengthening trade, investment and supply chains within ASEAN,” the statement added.
During the AMM, Lazaro also briefed his counterparts on the latest developments in Myanmar, as the bloc’s special envoy to that country. His briefing “covered the evolving political and humanitarian situation on the ground,” as well as efforts to implement the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus Peace Plan.
Since the military’s takeover in February 2021, Myanmar has been paralyzed by conflict between the military and a host of ethnic armed groups and other resistance forces. According to the United Nations, the country now has around 3.6 million displaced people, most of whom have been driven from their homes since the coup, and March was the deadliest month for civilians since the coup. According to ALTSEAN-Burma, a network of ASEAN civil society groups working for human rights in Myanmar, military attacks left 518 people dead that month.
While continuing its attacks on resistance groups, the Myanmar military is currently waging a normalization campaign with ASEAN, which has excluded it from the bloc’s summits since late 2021, due to its failure to implement the five-point consensus. This demanded an immediate cessation of violence and an inclusive dialogue involving “all parties” to the conflict.
Last month, coup leader Min Aung Hlaing was named president by a military-dominated parliament, after resigning as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. This followed controversial and widely boycotted elections dominated by the military’s proxy, the Trade Union Solidarity and Development Party. Since taking office, Min Aung Hlaing has announced that his new “civilian” administration intends to “improve international relations and strive to restore normal relations” with ASEAN.
To that end, his administration reduced the prison sentence of detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was removed from office in the 2021 coup, and says it has moved her from prison to house arrest.
The Philippines called on Myanmar authorities this week to allow Lazaro to meet Suu Kyi in her capacity as the bloc’s special envoy. To “further strengthen international trust,” Naypyidaw should allow Aung San Suu Kyi to communicate with her family to “demonstrate genuine commitment to national reconciliation,” the foreign ministry said.
In an interview with Reuters published yesterday, ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn said the bloc’s foreign ministers agreed yesterday to hold a virtual meeting with Myanmar’s foreign minister, likely so he could advocate for normalization.
“It is very clear that today the ASEAN foreign ministers agree that there will be an engagement with Myanmar, with the foreign minister of Myanmar, that they will have a virtual meeting in the very near future,” Kao Kim Hourn said.