Movie posters are displayed at a cinema in Shanghai on August 31, 2025.
VCG | Visual Group China | Getty Images
Hollywood has lost one of its most lucrative theatrical markets. We don’t know if he will ever be able to get it back.
The Chinese box office was once a coveted space for American films, so much so that studios produced films that could appeal directly to this international audience. But in the post-pandemic cinema landscape, Hollywood has not generated the strong ticket sales it once enjoyed for its biggest blockbusters – and declining relationships with Chinese cinemas are at least partly to blame.
The US-China film deal, reached in 2012 between the two governments, guaranteed that 34 American films would be released in China each year. This pact ended in 2017 and has never been renewed or renegotiated. At the same time, China began to expand its local film production and introduce blackout dates to promote viewership of its local titles.
Add to that the China Film Administration’s strict censorship policies and recent political tensions between the United States and China, and Hollywood films have faced several hurdles just to be distributed in the country post-Covid.
“I think the kind of euphoria about the biggest market in the world and looking at China as a place that’s still creating a bigger market for the U.S. [intellectual property] is not accurate,” said Aynne Kokas, a professor at the University of Virginia and author of “Hollywood Made in China.”
“[There are] constraints on the market in several ways, first related to content control and not just content control in terms of censorship, but also in terms of party control of distribution channels,” Kokas said.
She said the film office will “turn distribution levers on and off based on market needs.” If local Chinese films do well, the country will limit distribution access for foreign films. If there are gaps in movie releases or the releases aren’t selling as many tickets, that will open up the market.
In 2019, nine American titles each generated more than $100 million at the Chinese box office, including Disney and Marvel Studio’s “Avengers: Endgame,” collecting more than $600 million in the region, according to Comscore data.
However, in the past five years, only ten American films have grossed more than $100 million in China, and only two have exceeded $200 million.
The outlier is Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” which grossed a record $650 million domestically after its 2025 release.
Box office analysts told CNBC that the feat is likely an anomaly and that studios and Wall Street should not expect a sudden resurgence in ticket sales for U.S.-made films in the region, even if major franchises launch before the main summer movie season.
Market nuances
What works well in the United States is not guaranteed to succeed in China, despite the enormous audience potential.
“There is not necessarily a direct correlation between popular intellectual property in the United States and popular intellectual property in China,” Kokas said.
In some cases, it’s a lack of nostalgia on the part of Chinese audiences. Kokas noted that when Star Wars was introduced to the region with the sequel trilogy in 2015, it failed because the previous films in the original and prequel trilogies were never released in China, so later installments did not have the boost of a built-in fanbase.
Distribution experts told CNBC that the Chinese film bureau and audiences tend to gravitate toward films that are visual and apolitical spectacles.
Films that have performed well in the region since the pandemic include entries in the Fast & Furious saga, the Jurassic World films and installments in the Godzilla and King Kong franchises.
Even with the recent lull in ticket sales for Chinese releases, studios are not deterred from releasing titles in the region. A distribution expert told CNBC that China remains a major cinematic opportunity for American-made films.
“China remains a critical part of any international strategy for U.S.-based studios, as there are several hundred million dollars that could be made there due to an undeniable appetite in the region for big Hollywood films,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of market trends at Comscore.
Universal’s “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” is the next American film in the country, expected in theaters this weekend.
The franchise’s first film, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” grossed more than $1.3 billion worldwide in 2023, but only $25 million of that total came from China.
A distribution expert told CNBC that console games, like Nintendo’s Super Mario franchise, are not as prevalent in the region, meaning the nostalgia that drove $575 million in domestic ticket sales was not a major factor in China.
In Japan, where Super Mario is a cultural icon, the film grossed $102 million.
Nonetheless, the Chinese market helps bolster a film’s overall output and has the potential to cement massive success. Studios are therefore still willing to offer theatrical titles in the region.
Universal’s film “Michael” is also on the distribution schedule in China this year. Warner Bros.’ Disney’s “Mortal Kombat II” and “The Devil Wears Prada 2.”
Due to China’s strict censorship policies, films must be completed and screened by the film office before being considered for distribution. Therefore, the list of Hollywood films in China is not set in stone in the same way as that of domestic films.
But box office analysts expect titles like Disney’s “Toy Story 5” and Pixar and Warner Bros.’ “Dune: Part Three,” as well as Disney and Marvel’s “Avengers: Doomsday,” will also be available in Chinese theaters this year.