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Pfizer On Tuesday, it forecast modest guidance for 2026 as it considers longer-term investments in its pipeline to counter falling sales of Covid products and the decline of older drugs.
These hurdles are neither surprising nor new for Pfizer, which has seen a dramatic decline in sales of Covid vaccines and antivirals after raking in record revenue during the pandemic. The drugmaker has made deals of all sizes in recent years to create new revenue streams, such as its recently completed $10 billion acquisition of obesity biotech Metsera and the massive $43 billion tie-up for cancer drugmaker Seagen in 2023.
But the guidelines emphasize that these investments are still far from being profitable. Metsera, for example, offers a portfolio of drugs that are still in early stages of development.
The company’s shares fell nearly 5% on Tuesday. The stock is also down about 5% for the year.
The drugmaker expects adjusted earnings to be between $2.80 and $3 per share next year. That’s slightly below analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.05 per share for the year, according to LSEG.
Revenue is expected to total between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, which would be largely flat compared to Pfizer’s new 2025 sales forecast of $62 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $61.59 billion in 2026, according to LSEG estimates.
The company said the weak revenue outlook stems in part from falling sales of its Covid vaccine and antiviral pill Paxlovid. Pfizer projects that sales of these products in 2026 will decline by about $1.5 billion year-over-year to $5 billion.
Pfizer also highlighted an additional decline in sales of about $1.5 billion year-over-year, due to the loss of market exclusivity for certain products. Some blockbuster drugs, like the pneumonia vaccine Prevnar, are facing increased competition from rivals.
Pfizer’s patent expirations are primarily expected to occur in 2026 and 2028, the company’s chief financial officer, Dave Denton, said Tuesday on an investor call. He said the drugmaker expects $17 billion in revenue to be affected by expiring patents and regulatory exclusivities.
The anticoagulant Eliquis, one of the company’s best sellers, will also benefit from lower prices in Medicare starting next year, after negotiations with the government under the Inflation Reduction Act. Some analysts also noted that the guidance likely reflects costs related to the company’s recent acquisitions, including Metsera.
In a note published Tuesday, Chris Schott, an analyst at JPMorgan, called the outlook “widely expected.” He said Covid headwinds and investments in research and development will be partially offset by ongoing restructuring within the company.
On an investor call Tuesday, Pfizer said it exceeded its savings targets for 2025. The company is targeting more than $7 billion in cost reductions by 2027 and said Tuesday it expects to achieve the majority of those savings by next year.
Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said the slightly lower outlook for 2026 “leaves room” [for] adjustments in light of vaccine policy uncertainty.
Pfizer and other drugmakers have faced changes to U.S. vaccine policy under Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent skeptic.
“Given the uncertainty surrounding HHS policy and infection rates, we appreciate the conservative estimates and cost savings…as we approach the new year,” Seigerman said.
On the call, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the Food and Drug Administration’s comments about the shots “have no merit” and “will not change the way we think about our long-term investments in vaccines.” Bourla did not make specific remarks, but said he believed “this anomaly will correct itself.”
Earlier this year, Pfizer reached a historic drug pricing deal with the Trump administration that included selling its existing drugs to Medicaid patients at the lowest price offered in other developed countries. Pfizer will also guarantee the same “most favored nation” pricing on its new drugs for Medicare, Medicaid and commercial payers.
In exchange, the company will benefit from a three-year exemption from specific tariffs on pharmaceutical products imposed by President Donald Trump.
Denton said there was “price compression and margin compression built into” the company’s 2026 guidance as it plans to offer “deeper rebates” in its Medicaid business as part of the Trump deal.