Donald Trump’s plan to rig the 2026 election so Republicans could maintain a majority in the House was always wrong. stupid idea.
Political scientists who have studied the impacts of gerrymandering have found that gerrymandering does not rig elections or strengthen majorities.
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In 2023, the Institution for Social and Policy Research (ISPS) at Yale and Harvard University analyzed all potential simulations of national gerrymandering scenarios.
Their conclusion:
Taken together, the data show that most electoral bias cancels out at the national level, giving Republicans an advantage of just two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, compared to what could have been achieved under geographic and legal constraints.
Gerrymandering cannot rig the House or create a voter-proof majority, but it can create structural disadvantages in up to 8 House seats, making it harder for Democrats to win those seats.
Trump believed he could rig the election and create a Republican majority that could not be removed from office.
That’s not how gerrymandering works. Gerrymandering is bad because it makes it harder for voters to make themselves heard.
Trump doesn’t understand any of this, which is why he threw a tantrum Sunday at Indiana Republicans who refuse to redraw their congressional districts.
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