Yesterday, Reuters reported that a certain number of European leaders planned trips to Vietnam to advance diplomatic and economic links, as a possible coverage against the uncertain state of diplomatic and commercial relations with the United States.
Citing a main source from the European Union, the press agency reported that Ulula Von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, could visit the country in May, “in order to officially upgrade links”. The source also said that French President Emmanuel Macron could follow later in the month, returning the visit that the Communist Party of Vietnam leader in Lam made in Paris in October. According to Reuters’ report, EU Maros Sefcovic’s Commerce Commissioner could precede Von Der Leyen and Macron in Vietnam in April.
As Reuters describes, the goal of travel, which has been planned for some time but which have not yet been confirmed, is a means for European leaders to cover themselves against the economic and strategic disturbances of the Trump administration.
Certain recent events, notably the excursion speech of vice-president JD Vance at the Munich security conference last month and the remarkable confrontation of last week between Vance, President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, shaken European strategic hypotheses and incited the actions to diversify the economic and political relations of Europe. Then, the administration imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada goods, in addition to increasing its prices on Chinese products to 20%. All three have either responded in kind or have promised to do so, which makes fear of a disadvantage of the currently global commercial regime.
Last month, Von der Leyen pronounced a video address at the Future Asean Forum in Hanoi, during which she praised the State of relations between the EU and the Association of Nations of Southeast Asia (ASEAN), referring to their common belief in “openness, free trade and fair trade, and effective partnerships that stimulate development and prosperity”, according to a report in public media Vietnamese. She also said that with “the tide of export prices and controls increased”, the EU, currently the third trading partner of the Anase, wanted to “create new opportunities to exchange and invest with trusted partners”.
The Trump administration also represents potential challenges for Vietnam. While the United States and Vietnam have experienced regular strategic convergence in recent years – marked by the historic establishment of a complete strategic partnership in September 2023 – the country could be examined for its massive trade surplus with the United States, which increased by almost a fifth in 2024, reaching a record summit of 123.5 billion dollars. He now has the third trade surplus with the United States, behind only China and Mexico – which have both been struck since the Trump administration took office in January. The country is particularly vulnerable to the light of reports according to which Chinese companies have installed factories in Vietnam specifically to avoid prices on goods from China
If Vietnam is subject to American commercial reprisals, the senior EU has told Reuters, this can lead to more Vietnamese exports to the EU and a greater European investment in Vietnam. EU-Vietnam trade relations have increased regularly since the entry into force of the EU-Vietnam (EVTFA) free trade agreement in 2020.
The EU was the third export market in Vietnam in 2024, important for $ 52 billion in goods, compared to $ 136.6 billion for the United States. Vietnam was the 17th largest trading partner in the EU and its biggest in Anase. In addition to the EVFTA, the EU has signed a free trade agreement with Singapore – and is currently negotiating similar commercial pacts with Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Even if Vietnam manages to avoid the worst anger of the Trump administration – Hanoi has already undertaken to buy more American planes, liquefied natural gas and other products – there is a solid strategic meaning to further develop trade relations and investment between the EU and the ASEAN.
While the governments of Brussels and Southeast Asia have not always seen an eye on questions such as climate change, environmental protection and human rights – questions that have complicated Ale negotiations with Indonesia and Indonesia in particular – their common areas of interest become more obvious at each stage than the Trump administration takes to dismantle the current world order.