“GM may be looking over its shoulder”

DETROIT – Toyota engine wins in particular over the largest American automobile manufacturer, General engines, sales in the United States as hybrids become more popular and fully electric vehicles stumble.

The Japanese automaker is expected to report a nearly 1% increase in U.S. sales in the first half of this year, to 1.25 million vehicles, while GM is expected to see a 7.2% decline to 1.33 million, according to a new forecast released Wednesday by Cox Automotive.

“At these rates, and what we’re seeing in sales rates right now, GM could be looking over their shoulder, when we get to the end of the year, that Toyota could potentially overtake them as the best-selling manufacturer here in the U.S. market,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist and senior director of industry research at Cox Automotive, said at a media event.

Chesbrough said he doesn’t yet predict Toyota will overtake GM, but he said the trends are “concerning for General Motors.”

The expected difference of 83,255 vehicle sales in the first half of the year would be the narrowest between the two automakers since Toyota surpassed GM in U.S. sales for the first time in its history in 2021. That was partly the result of supply chain issues during the coronavirus pandemic.

At that time, Toyota Chairman and company scion Akio Toyoda said he did a “happy dance” upon learning of the victory, but executives said the company did not expect it to be lasting. Outside of this year, GM has been the best-selling automaker in the United States since 1931, according to industry data.

Toyota’s gains come as the automaker has continued to launch new models, including fully electric vehicles, while continuing to double down on its hybrid vehicles, where it has been a leader for decades.

GM, meanwhile, has invested heavily in fully electric vehicles rather than hybrids, repeatedly calling them a transitional technology. The Detroit automaker’s only hybrid is a Corvette, while it offers a full line of electric vehicles for the luxury Cadillac brand as well as numerous models for other brands.

“The story is that hybrids are having their moment,” Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Cox Industry Insights, said at Wednesday’s event.

Cox expects overall new vehicle sales in the U.S. to be down 3% in the first half compared to last year, including a 0.5% decline in the second quarter.

The company expects electric vehicle sales to decline 23.3% in the first half of this year. Hybrid sales, meanwhile, are expected to increase by around 10%.

Honda, Volkswagen and Stellantis are expected to post sales gains for the second quarter, while Cox forecasts the largest sales declines for the second quarter. Tesla, Ford engine and GM.